Microsoft Q3 2026 Earnings Analysis
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Microsoft Q3 2026 Earnings Analysis
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JORDAN: Thanks Alex, and wow - where do we even begin with these Microsoft numbers? They just reported record results across the board. Revenue hit $82.9 billion, up 18% year-over-year, and earnings per share came in at $4.27. But the real headline here is their AI business - it's now at a $37 billion annual run rate, growing 123% year-over-year!
ALEX: That AI growth rate is just staggering. But let's put this in perspective - Microsoft Cloud overall generated $54 billion in revenue, up 29%. So AI is becoming a massive piece of their puzzle. What really caught my attention was Satya Nadella talking about how we're at the beginning of "one of the most consequential platform shifts" as agents become the dominant workload.
JORDAN: Absolutely, and you can see this playing out in their Copilot numbers. Microsoft 365 Copilot now has over 20 million paid seats - that's 250% growth year-over-year. Even more impressive, they're seeing weekly engagement levels that match Outlook. Think about that - people are using Copilot as much as they use email!
ALEX: That's a great point about user engagement. And they shared some fascinating customer wins - Accenture alone has over 740,000 seats, which is their largest Copilot deal to date. Companies like Bayer, Johnson & Johnson, and Mercedes are all committing to 90,000+ seats. But Jordan, what I found really interesting was this shift in business model that Amy Hood kept emphasizing.
JORDAN: Yes! The transition from traditional per-seat pricing to what they're calling "seats plus consumption." It's happening across their portfolio - from productivity to coding to security. GitHub Copilot actually announced they're moving to usage-based pricing starting June 1st. This is huge because it means as customers use these AI tools more intensively, Microsoft's revenue can scale accordingly.
ALEX: And they're seeing that intensity increase dramatically. Copilot queries per user were up nearly 20% just quarter-over-quarter. Usage of their first-party agents is up 6x year-to-date. Amy Hood mentioned that in customer service, nearly 60% of their customers are already purchasing usage-based credits.
JORDAN: The infrastructure side of this story is equally compelling. They added another gigawatt of capacity this quarter and are on track to double their overall footprint in two years. But here's the kicker - they're still capacity constrained and expect to remain so through at least 2026. That's both a challenge and an opportunity.
ALEX: Speaking of infrastructure, their CapEx guidance is eye-popping. They're expecting over $40 billion in Q4 alone, and for calendar 2026, they're projecting roughly $190 billion in capital expenditures. That includes about $25 billion from higher component pricing. When an analyst asked about investor concerns over CapEx growing faster than revenue, Amy Hood made a compelling case.
JORDAN: Right, she pointed to their $627 billion in remaining performance obligations - that's contracted revenue they still need to deliver. With demand consistently exceeding supply and usage intensity growing, they feel confident about the ROI on these investments. Satya added that they want to be ready when model capabilities hit those exponential moments - like when agent mode in Excel suddenly "started working."
ALEX: Let's talk about the segment performance. Productivity and Business Processes hit $35 billion in revenue, up 17%. Intelligent Cloud was $34.7 bill
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