Over the weekend, on Trump's birthday, the US and Iran announced they'd reached a deal to end the war. The actual text has not been released. What we know so far is that this is a memorandum of understanding, not a signed treaty, and by no measure does any foreign policy expert consider that a real deal yet.

The Strait of Hormuz, which 20% of the world's oil flows through, did not reopen immediately as promised. As of recording, only two ships have passed through and the US blockade remains. Iran would gain joint control over the strait with Oman, which intelligence officials are calling a bigger threat than a nuclear weapon, since it gives Iran an on off switch over global oil.

There's no agreement on Iran's uranium stockpile, the centerpiece issue Trump has built his entire Iran policy around. Today in Switzerland, Trump suddenly started downplaying how much that uranium actually matters. His own Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, and CIA Director all told him in private meetings they don't think Iran is being fully truthful.

Grant also breaks down the $24 billion in unfrozen assets, the $200 billion total cost of this war to Americans, why this could trigger the Senate's treaty approval process, and why Lindsey Graham just threw JD Vance under the bus on Twitter.

Subscribe on Substack, Friday's interview with NYU law professor Melissa Murray on her new book about the Constitution drops this week.

CHAPTERS:

0:00 After 40 broken promises, is the Iran war actually over this time?

1:30 Sponsor: SaySo News

2:55 Trump's Saturday Truth Social post and an explicit threat to use nuclear weapons

4:20 Sunday's announcement: why this is a memorandum of understanding, not a real deal

5:40 The Strait of Hormuz still isn't open. Only two ships have passed through.

7:00 Iran and Oman would jointly control the Strait. Why intelligence officials call this worse than a nuke.

9:00 $24 billion unfrozen, $300 billion in possible reconstruction money, and JD Vance's PR problem

11:00 The real cost: $200 billion spent by Americans on a war Congress never approved

13:00 The nuclear question still isn't resolved, and today Trump started downplaying it

15:00 Rubio, Hegseth, and Ratcliffe all told Trump in private they don't trust Iran on this

16:30 Why Trump won't release the actual text of the agreement

18:00 Hurdle one: Israel, Lebanon, and Netanyahu's promise to stay no matter what

20:00 Hurdle two: the Senate's treaty approval clause and Lindsey Graham throwing JD Vance under the bus

22:30 Hurdle three: 60 days is a long time, and what could still go wrong before this is signed

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