The Cannes awards are here, and somehow the Oscar race feels less clear than it did before.

In this episode of The Oscars Outsider Podcast, we react to the major winners from the Cannes Film Festival, including the Palme d’Or win for Fjord, and try to figure out what any of it means for the Oscar race.

The big question: did Cannes give us a new frontrunner, or did it make the whole season even messier?

We dig into the Screen Cannes jury grid, where Fjord landed at 2.5 while several other contenders, including Fatherland, Minotaur, and All of a Sudden, scored higher. We also talk through the mismatch between critical consensus and jury awards, which films feel stronger after Cannes, which ones suddenly look shakier, and whether the Palme winner is actually positioned for Oscar attention.

If you follow Cannes, Oscar season, festival buzz, or the strange gap between critics’ favorites and awards bodies, this episode is for you.

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Cannes is almost over, which means it is time to make our Palme d’Or predictions.

In this episode, we break down the Cannes competition, make our picks for who we think could win the Palme d’Or, and talk through which films might carry momentum into the Oscar race. We get into the strange energy of this year’s festival, the movies that seem built for jury attention, the ones that could break out later, and whether Cannes still feels like the launchpad it used to be.

Along the way, we also talk John Travolta’s honorary Palme d’Or, Paul Schrader’s Cannes grumpiness, Jacob Elordi’s jury absence, and the general chaos of trying to read festival buzz from afar. The episode sets up the Palme prediction segment directly in the intro, so this title and thumbnail are aligned with what the show actually promises.

Chapters:0:00 Intro0:42 John Travolta's honorary Palme d'Or & Paul Schrader4:24 Setting the stage: Cannes wraps up5:06 Top storylines & the Screen jury grid (Fatherland, Minotaur)9:43 Standing ovations & the clapping arms race12:08 Polarizing films & Fjord (Cristian Mungiu)14:01 Where's Hollywood? Do the studios still need Cannes?20:14 The Bolloré / Canal D scandal22:29 A quiet market & the subtitle problem24:05 Big deals: A24 bidding war & Park Chan-wook's western26:45 Hollywood no-shows: Johansson & Adam Driver27:42 The anti-AI backlash (Soderbergh, del Toro, Radu Jude)32:33 Hope by Na Hong-jin34:59 Jury dynamics & Palme d'Or predictions38:26 Parallel Tales (Asghar Farhadi) flops40:34 Was this a disappointing Cannes?43:04 Golden Globes expands its voting body45:13 Nolan's Odyssey & the casting backlash47:16 Oscar eligibility & the diversity-rule conspiracy56:05 The Daniels cast Matt Damon59:03 Wrap-up & sign-off

This week on Oscars Outsider, Cannes is open, but Hollywood might have left the group chat.

We dig into a strange Cannes lineup where the big American studio titles mostly stayed home, while European, East Asian, and international festival heavyweights take center stage. What does that mean for the Oscar race? Is Hollywood avoiding the risk of an early festival reaction, or is Cannes simply becoming less dependent on Hollywood glamour?

We also look at the films that could emerge from Cannes as real awards contenders, including potential international players, major auteurs returning to the Croisette, and the movies that might shape the Best Picture conversation months from now.

It’s Cannes season, which means it’s time to overreact responsibly.

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