Hosts Shankar Ramakrishnan and Bruce Clark are joined by Dave Corbell to discuss the state of US and European primary credit markets amid volatility tied to the Iran conflict, inflation concerns, private credit risks, and shifting rate expectations.

They note heavy front-loaded issuance as banks push borrowers to seize brief market windows, with the US posting a record $651bn investment-grade first quarter and Europe also seeing a record Q1, while spreads have widened only mildly and often tighten when supply slows.

Demand remains strong with cover ratios above four times, though higher Treasury yields and rising new-issue premiums lift borrowing costs. They discuss risk-on behavior despite negative headlines, changing rate-cut versus hike pricing, a slowdown in European high yield, emerging market issuance strength, refinancing risks from COVID-era debt, and signs of strain in some structured finance assets without clear systemic fallout.

On this episode of Credit Matters, host Shankar Ramakrishnan is joined by Bruce Clark and European credit analyst Matthew Barrett, to discuss the surge in “reverse Yankee” issuance—US companies raising debt in Europe—as AI infrastructure funding drives jumbo deals and issuers seek diversification to avoid overcrowding the dollar market and rising costs.

They explain how rate differentials, a tight cross-currency basis swap (around 0–5bp), and attractive all-in euro funding have pulled issuers across the pond, citing IBM’s lower euro coupons and record multi-tranche trades from Amazon and Alphabet, including landmark sterling and Swiss franc issuance.

The team also explores how Middle East-driven volatility and shifting rate-hike expectations in Europe and the UK are lifting yields and new-issue concessions, slowing supply, and making timing issuance windows harder even as demand remains strong when investors are compensated.

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On this episode of “Credit Matters,” Shankar Ramakrishnan and Bruce Clark recap a volatile week in rates and credit as Middle East conflict headlines pushed oil prices higher, helping stall US investment grade issuance after a busy start to the week.

Bruce outlines a dramatic repricing of global central bank expectations, with Europe and the UK turning notably more hawkish while US futures shift from pricing multiple cuts to a small chance of a hike by year-end. Guest Meghan Robson, Head of US Credit Strategy at BNP, says credit’s reaction has been muted as Powell stayed data-dependent, but investors are moving away from the “several cuts” narrative; she notes IG spreads have widened about 20bp since January though fundamentals remain mid-cycle.

Meghan discusses positioning, preferred opportunities in IG and select high yield cyclicals, AI-driven software sentiment risk versus fundamentals, private credit concerns tied to leverage and transparency, key red flags (earnings declines and asset coverage), and practical hedging tools like CDX and options.

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On the second episode of "Credit Matters", Shankar and Bruce discuss record-breaking US investment grade issuance and a rebound in high yield, including a triple-C tap, despite growing strains and broader volatility.

Guest Winnie Cisar of CreditSights says issuance is “bananas” even as borrowing costs rise, driven by strong fundamentals and investor demand for attractive all-in yields (IG above 5%, HY above 7%) despite tight spreads. She highlights sector-specific cracks (media, chemicals), private credit risks and floating-rate pressure, and notes default rates remain relatively low (HY ~2.4%, loans near 5%).

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This week on Credit Matters, Shankar Ramakrishnan kicks off with expectations for a massive March with $230B of new supply and a potential $2T year.

He and Bruce Clark discuss the demand “technicals” behind strong issuance, attractive 4–6% yields, and near-non-existent default rates, alongside risks from volatility tied to the Iran war, oil-price shocks, inflation, and shifting rate-cut expectations.

Clark outlines how early-2026 “Goldilocks” conditions were supported by strong earnings and falling treasury yields before the conflict reversed yields and darkened sentiment, amplified by a weak February payroll report.

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Shankar Ramakrishnan, Head of U.S. Credit and Market Engagement at Informa Global Markets, breaks down the hottest topics in the world of investment banking in IGM's weekly podcast.

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