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  • How Household Inflation Expectations Signal a Shift in Consumer Behavior

    How Household Inflation Expectations Signal a Shift in Consumer Behavior
    2026/06/08
    In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows household worries over finances hitting their highest level since July 2022. They explore how this shift in consumer sentiment is beginning to affect spending patterns, savings rates, and even the Federal Reserve's policy path. With the May jobs report due Friday and the S&P 500 down 2.4% in the past five days, the hosts connect the dots between rising anxiety and real economic data like the 4.3% unemployment rate and the 7.6 million job openings from JOLTS. They discuss why inflation expectations matter more than current inflation for economic forecasting, and what it means when consumers start expecting higher prices but aren't seeing it in core PCE yet. A timely look at the psychology driving macro trends. #InflationExpectations #ConsumerSentiment #NewYorkFed #HouseholdFinances #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicIndicators #JobsReport #UnemploymentRate #JOLTS #CorePCE #SP500 #MacroData #ConsumerBehavior #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicOutlook Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • Why the Nasdaq Is Down Five Percent While GDP Is Growing

    Why the Nasdaq Is Down Five Percent While GDP Is Growing
    2026/06/08
    The S&P 500 is at 7,384 and the Nasdaq has dropped over five percent in five days, yet real GDP grew at 1.6 percent annualized in Q1 2026 and the unemployment rate is a low 4.3 percent. Lucas and Luna unpick this apparent contradiction by looking at the composition of GDP growth, the surge in job openings to 7.6 million, and what the bond market is pricing in via the ten-year yield at 4.54 percent. They explain why the stock sell-off isn't contradicting the macro data — it's reading a different signal entirely. A grounded conversation about what markets are seeing that GDP alone doesn't show. #Nasdaq #S&P500 #GDP #JOLTS #JobOpenings #BondMarket #YieldCurve #StockMarket #FedPolicy #Economics #MacroData #MarketSellOff #TenYearYield #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #RateCut #Inflation Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • What the Yield Curve Steepening Means for 2026

    What the Yield Curve Steepening Means for 2026
    2026/06/07
    In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the surprising steepening of the yield curve in mid-2026. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.54 percent and the two-year at 3.62 percent, the spread has widened past 90 basis points after being inverted for over two years. What does this signal about growth expectations, Fed policy, and the risk of a recession? The hosts examine the role of term premiums, the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation expectations, and why a steepening curve doesn't always mean 'all clear' for the economy. They also discuss how investors should interpret the bond market's message versus the GDP data showing only 1.6 percent annualized growth. Packed with specific numbers and real-market context, this episode helps you read the macro tea leaves without the jargon. #YieldCurve #SteepeningYieldCurve #TreasuryYields #TenYearTreasury #TwoYearTreasury #BondMarket #FederalReserve #FedPolicy #InflationExpectations #TermPremium #EconomicGrowth #GDP #RecessionSignal #IranConflict #MacroEconomics #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #EconomicIndicators Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 分
  • Capacity Utilisation and the Hidden Slack in the Economy

    Capacity Utilisation and the Hidden Slack in the Economy
    2026/06/07
    In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into capacity utilisation—an often-overlooked metric that reveals how much industrial slack the economy really has. With the latest reading stuck at 76.1 percent, well below the long-run average of 80 percent, the hosts explain why factories aren't running hot despite decent GDP growth. They connect this to the tepid inflation picture, the Fed's cautious stance, and what it means for investors. Lucas walks through the data from April 2026, contrasts it with the 2021-2022 rebound, and explains why capacity utilisation tends to peak before recessions. Luna asks whether the manufacturing weakness is structural—from reshoring and automation—or just cyclical. The episode closes with a look at the jobs report due this Friday and what a capacity utilisation uptick could signal about the broader economy. #CapacityUtilisation #IndustrialProduction #FedPolicy #Inflation #GDPGrowth #Manufacturing #EconomicSlack #BusinessInvestment #Reshoring #Automation #JobsReport #May2026 #April2026Data #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #MacroData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    10 分
  • Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening Again in 2026

    Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening Again in 2026
    2026/06/06
    Lucas and Luna dig into the striking data showing the yield curve is steepening—the 10-year Treasury hit 4.54 percent and the 30-year touched 5.00 percent—while short-term rates stay elevated. They explore whether this signals the economy is healing, or if it reflects war-risk premiums and tariff uncertainty. Using the latest CPI, jobs, and GDP data from June 2026, they unpack what the curve's shape means for growth expectations and Federal Reserve policy. A specific, data-driven look at one of the most watched fixed-income signals. #YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #Inflation #GDP #CPI #JobsReport #JOLTS #LongTermRates #SteepeningCurve #BusinessCycle #EconomicsExplained #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #Investing #RateOutlook Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
  • Why Business Inventories Are a Leading Recession Signal

    Why Business Inventories Are a Leading Recession Signal
    2026/06/06
    Episode 34 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo dives into total business inventories—the $2.71 trillion number that often flashes warning before a downturn. Lucas and Luna break down why inventories rose 0.9% in March 2026 even as consumer spending softens, what the inventory-to-sales ratio is signaling, and how this metric differs from GDP or jobs data. They reference the May jobs report preview and the jump in jobless claims to 225,000. A specific, data-driven look at a macro indicator that doesn't make headlines but leads the cycle. #BusinessInventories #InventoryCycle #RecessionSignal #LeadingIndicators #MacroData #SupplyChain #GDP #JoblessClaims #ConsumerSpending #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #LucasAndLuna #InventoryToSalesRatio #MayJobsReport #USEconomy #DataDriven Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 分
  • Long-Term Unemployment Is Spiking What It Means

    Long-Term Unemployment Is Spiking What It Means
    2026/06/05
    Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data showing long-term unemployment is surging in the U.S., even as headline job numbers look solid. With the unemployment rate stuck at 4.3% and initial jobless claims rising to 225,000, they explore the hidden drag on the economy, the Fed's frustration, and why this structural shift matters more than monthly payrolls. They connect the dots to capacity utilization stuck below 77% and the fading GDP momentum, asking whether the labor market is sending a signal the macro data hasn't caught yet. #LongTermUnemployment #JoblessClaims #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #GDP #CapacityUtilization #Inflation #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #May2026 #UnemploymentRate #JobOpenings #WageGrowth #StructuralUnemployment #MacroData #HiddenCosts Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • Why Capacity Utilisation Is Stuck Below 77 Percent

    Why Capacity Utilisation Is Stuck Below 77 Percent
    2026/06/05
    In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a number that keeps catching Lucas's eye: capacity utilisation at 76.1 percent. Even as real GDP growth rebounded to 1.6 percent annualised and job openings surged to 7.6 million, factories are still running well below the 78-to-80 percent range that historically signals pricing power and investment. They trace the history back to the 2015 oil bust and the 2020 pandemic, showing how structural shifts in energy, semiconductors, and reshoring have reset the 'normal' zone. The hosts also unpack what the flat capacity utilisation trend means for the Fed's inflation fight — and for your portfolio. #CapacityUtilisation #IndustrialProduction #GDP #CPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #EconomicIndicators #Economy #Manufacturing #SupplyChain #Reshoring #Semiconductors #Energy #MacroData #FexingoBusiness #Economics #BusinessPodcast #InvestmentStrategy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分