In this week's energy market update, we explore a major announcement from leading AI chipmaker Nvidia, software company Emerald AI, and major energy players like Constellation to power a new class of "flexible AI factories". By utilizing Nvidia's latest Vera Rubin chip and Emerald AI's conductor platform to modulate compute demand in real-time, Nvidia claims this approach could unlock up to 100 gigawatts of capacity across the US power system.

With the US grid staring at expected peak demands that existing infrastructure simply cannot accommodate in the next three to five years, flexibility is becoming critical. For energy professionals tracking massive load growth, this video unpacks what this flexible architecture actually means for the grid:

The Grid Bottleneck & Souring Costs: Why adding inflexible data centers pushes up peak demand and exacerbates supply scarcity. We look at PJM's capacity market, where prices have soared seven or eightfold, costing ratepayers an estimated $23 billion over the last three auctions.

The Economic Power of Flexibility: How modulating compute loads during grid scarcity could allow massive new demand to connect without requiring billions in new infrastructure. We highlight recent Duke University studies suggesting that avoiding just 1% to 2% of peak hours could reduce utilities' new natural gas construction costs by 10 to 15%.

Real-World Testing: A look at the limited empirical data we have so far, including a peer-reviewed test at an Emerald AI data center in Arizona that successfully reduced power consumption by 25% during peak hours. We also discuss Google's recent milestone of surpassing 1 gigawatt of data center demand response.

Regulatory Skepticism & Risk: Why PJM's Independent Market Monitor (IMM) is pushing back hard against treating data centers as paid demand response assets. We discuss the immense financial risk to ratepayers if a data center fails to curtail power during an emergency, and the argument that flexibility should simply be a mandatory precondition for interconnection.

While the economic incentives and technical concepts are incredibly promising, the industry still needs to prove that this combination of silicon and electrons can be predictably and repeatedly flexible at scale. Join us as we unpack the 100 GW claim and discuss why significant caution is still warranted

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In early March, mid-Atlantic grid operator PJM Began using Ambient Adjusted Ratings to better determine how much power can flow through its lines based on actual weather conditions. In addition, the DOE announced it will award billions for quick and effective upgrades to the transmission system.

First we have to fix the broken interconnection issue. For all projects seeking interconnection to the grid from 2008 through 2019, only 19% of the projects actually flowed power by the end of 2024. The typical project built in 2025 took 55 months to get through the queue, compared with 36 months in 2015.

But even if all of that new supply capacity could be processed through interconnection queues, there are simply not enough transmission lines to accommodate the planned resources. And few new lines are being built: less than 1,000 miles of 345 kV+ transmission lines were completed in 2024 – far less expansion than is needed, especially in the face of enormous new data center demand.

The biggest challenge is permitting for new rights-of-way, which can take well over a decade. There is a glimmer of hope that the federal government may reform the permitting process prior to the mid-terms, but it’s unlikely.

Grid-enhancing technologies, or GETs, can offer some relief by doing more with existing transmission. In addition, there is the growing potential for reconductoring.

The GETs technology with the greatest near-term is dynamic line rating, or DLR. As power lines move more power, they heat up. Lines are limited in terms of how much they can energy move by static ratings, based on worst case weather assumptions, such as 100 degrees F with no wind.

Such conditions rarely occur, but with static ratings flows cannot exceed those pre-set amounts. Most days, one could move much more power through that line, if one were

using DLRs - a combination of software and sensors. DLRs measure ambient temperatures and wind (wind wicks lots of heat away from the line, as well as how much sunshine is warming the wires. Sensors also measure how much the wire is physically sagging at any given moment. This information helps operators move more power without hitting “thermal violations.”

A 2024 case study showed static ratings could be exceeded 100% of the time, with average capacity increases of 81%. In summer, one could exceed the static ratings 94% of the time, with average increases of 27%.

A less capital-intensive approach that doesn’t require physical sensors and uses weather data, but also fails to measure the impact of wind, is called Ambient Adjusted Rating or AAR. AARs automatically predict transmission line capacity on an hourly basis.

The Federal Energy Commission’s 2021 Order 881

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The U.S. solar industry installed 43.1 gigawatts-direct current (GWdc) of capacity in 2025, down 14% from 2024. GWdc is the nameplate rating of projects before they connect to the grid through inverters, which convert direct current (DC) to the alternating current (AC) our grid uses.

Two elements lower DC ratings to AC ratings. First, inverter losses account for around 4%.

More importantly, solar panels have specific output duration curves; there’s only a very small period when they produce maximum output, or even 80–90%. It’s uneconomical to buy an inverter that rarely hits full MW ratings, so developers resort to “solar clipping.” A 100 MWdc solar array might use inverters delivering a maximum of 80 MW of AC power to the grid. Typical DC/AC ratios are 1.1 to 1.25. You lose only a bit of energy on an MWh basis, but with significantly lower inverter costs. Therefore, MWdc numbers must be translated to the real-world MWac of the grid.

However, all capacity is not the same: a MW of solar capacity has two factors differentiating it from, say, a MW of gas-fired generation.

First, solar operates at a different capacity factor (a resource operating at 100% output all year would have a 100% capacity factor). An average panel capacity factor is 25%, compared to 60% for a combined-cycle gas plant. Because of this, it’s best to think in terms of energy generated. Location also matters; the capacity factor in Massachusetts is 16.5%, while in Arizona it is 29%.

One way to compare these is by energy output. Solar is now approaching 10% of total energy contributed to the grid. Additionally, solar arrays can be deployed faster than new turbines. With rising data center demand, we need all the electricity we can get.

(Source: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67005)

Furthermore, solar is not dispatchable. It only generates power when the sun shines, while a gas plant can be called upon at any time, except during certain extreme weather events. In 2024, the mid-Atlantic grid operator PJM down-rated combined-cycle turbines from 96% to 79% in terms of their ability to meet peak demand during the worst hour of the worst day, and recently lowered that rating further to 74%. By comparison, PJM rates solar at only 7%.

When you hear about solar in terms of MWdc, it helps to reframe those values using the information above. Nonetheless, solar has grown considerably. In 2009, about 1 GW (1,000 MW) of solar was added in the U.S. That cumulative total is now 279 GWdc, and analyst Wood Mackenzie forecasts an increase of 490 GWdc over the next decade.

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Xcel Energy and Google recently announced a monumental clean energy agreement to power a new data center in Minnesota. While the deal includes massive wind and solar additions, the real game-changer is the energy storage component: 300 MW of iron-air batteries manufactured by Form Energy, boasting an unprecedented 100 hours of duration.

To put the scale into perspective, this single 30,000 MWh (30 GWh) project represents over 50% of the entire battery energy storage installed across the U.S. last year.

In our latest update, we unpack the details of this historic deal, including:

• The Iron-Air Technology: How the simple process of oxidizing (or rusting) cheap, abundant iron is being harnessed for grid-scale power.
• The Efficiency Trade-off: Why the market might be willing to accept a remarkably low 40% round-trip efficiency in exchange for the firm, dispatchable capacity required to balance variable wind and solar.
• Manufacturing Scale: How this single Google project will consume 60% of the 500 MW annual capacity at Form Energy's rehabilitated West Virginia steel mill.

Check out the full breakdown to explore whether this 100-hour battery is the key to solving the grid's resource adequacy challenges amid the booming, insatiable power demands of modern data centers.

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🎙️ About Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Hosted by Peter Kelly-Detwiler, Energy Future explores the trends, technologies, and policies driving the global clean-energy transition — from the U.S. grid and renewable markets to advanced nuclear, fusion, and EV innovation.

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I have spell-checked and fixed the grammar in the document's content. I've focused on corrections that maintain the original meaning and structure of the text.-----The last few weeks have seen numerous announcements by U.S. fusion energy companies.

First, let’s briefly explain fusion. With fission, you take a heavy and unstable nucleus and split it into two smaller nuclei, releasing energy and creating a chain reaction.

With fusion, you cause two light nuclei (usually hydrogen isotopes) to collide and merge into a heavier nucleus (such as helium), releasing energy. The sun is an enormous fusion reactor.

For commercial fusion, you need three things: 1) temperatures high enough (around 50 to 150 million °C) so nuclei move fast and fuse frequently; 2) sufficient density creating more opportunities for nuclei to collide, fuse, and release energy; 3) the ability to confine the reaction, keeping the plasma dense and hot enough to yield a net energy output.

Plasma itself is a state of matter in which a gas is highly energized so its atoms have lost one or more electrons, creating a mix of free electrons and ions.

Confinement of plasma can be achieved with the inertia of a compressed pellet or by using magnetic fields.

The pellet confinement approach - inertial confinement fusion, or ICF – is achieved by compressing a small fuel pellet (typically hydrogen) rapidly and with high density so it fuses before it can break apart.

With magnetic confinement, two main technologies exist: 1) tokomaks – donut shaped devices combining magnets with electric currents in plasma to construct a sort of magnetic cage; and 2) stellerators – machines employing magnetic coils that yield twisted magnetic fields requiring less currents in the plasma. Companies are pursuing approaches along these two main lines, with the majority using the magnetic approach.

The major recent technical achievement was Helion’s announcement that it had achieved plasma temperatures of close to 150 million degrees C.

On the commercial front, Type One Energy and the Tennessee Valley Authority are advancing licensing and construction plans for a 350 MW stellerator fusion plant, with groundbreaking as early as 2028.

Regarding licensing, Thea Energy received the first Department of Energy certification for its pilot stellerator design.

In financing, Avalanche Energy received $29 million in new investor funding, following significant breakthroughs in plasma physics, to support licensing, commercial-scale operations, and a test program. Avalanche is developing a tiny fusion reactor between 1 and 100 kW, “small enough to sit on your desk.”

Inertia Enterprises also raised almost $450 million to construct powerful lasers, as well as a power plant

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Let’s explore the complexity associated with keeping the lights, using New England as an example. The region is a bit of an outlier because of its proverbial end-of-the-pipeline location. Most days, its two pipelines are sufficient to heat homes and generate power. But late January to early February was unusually cold and there was not enough gas for both.

We’ll look at both energy and capacity issues. Capacity is the instantaneous amount of electricity produced or consumed. Energy is a function of capacity times the duration.

The hottest and coldest days are the ones in which we stress the grid the most – because of heating and cooling demands.

Annual grid peaks typically occur in summer, around 5:00 or 6:00 PM. So grids need enough generation to meet the peak demand, plus a back-up reserve margin, in case we lose a big power plant or transmission line.

Until recently, ISO-NE only paid attention to summer peaks, when the system maxed out. But recently, it began to shift its attention to the winter as well. First, because new loads, especially EVs and heat pumps, have higher winter demand. Second, there’s not enough gas to go around.

Fortunately, from a reliability perspective, the region’s dual fuel turbines can burn fuel oil or kerosene, and even jet fuel. So the focus shifts to energy, because the amount of stored liquid fuels is limited, though it can be replenished – especially if weather cooperates. During the frigid cold snap in 2017/2018, New England started with 5 million barrels of oil and ended with only one, in one case burning a million gallons in a single day.

During the extreme cold this January, fuel oil was the leading source of generation for several days, constituting over one-third of operating generation.

One new resource just commissioned was the 1200 MW New England Clean Energy Connect (NECEC) transmission line, bringing hydropower from Quebec to Massachusetts with a contract for an annual 9,555,000 MWh. The NECEC line was expected to help address winter capacity and energy issues.

But last week, no power was flowing into New England over that line on the coldest days. On the frigid Sunday before the storm, power flowed for only a single hour, with the line operating at about half its capacity. The following day, at around 6:00 in the evening, electricity started flowing again at about 25% - this despite penalties for non-delivery.

However, the contract does provide a measure of relief to those oil supplies in the long run. Today, January 3rd, the temps are in the mid-20s. The region continues to burn oil, at 23%.

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The "Power Game" is shifting. Here’s what you need to know from this week’s Energy Story:

• Courts 3, White House 0: Three different federal judges have now lifted the "stop-work" orders on massive offshore wind projects, ruling that the administration failed to prove any urgent "national security" risk.
• A "Social Good" vs. A Commodity: PJM took the rare step of siding against the administration, arguing that stopping these projects causes "irreparable harm" to the reliability of the grid for 67 million people.
• The 15-Year Hook: A new bipartisan proposal suggests an "Emergency Capacity Auction" specifically for data centers. It would offer developers 15-year guaranteed revenue—a massive shift from the current (and often "useless") 1-year auction cycles.
• The "Parallel Grid" Risk: We explore the danger of creating two markets: a highly lucrative one for AI developers and a "starved" one for existing ratepayers.
• The 2028 Bottleneck: Even with guaranteed money, the world is running out of hardware. GE reports gas turbine availability is limited until late 2028, and new transmission capacity is essentially non-existent.

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🎙️ About Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Hosted by Peter Kelly-Detwiler, Energy Future explores the trends, technologies, and policies driving the global clean-energy transition — from the U.S. grid and renewable markets to advanced nuclear, fusion, and EV innovation.

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Is a Nuclear Renaissance finally here? In our latest update, we look at how the insatiable energy appetite of AI is catalyzing a new era of fusion and fission.

• Fusion Hits the Gas: From Commonwealth Fusion’s massive magnet breakthrough to Google’s $1 billion commitment, the "future" of energy is arriving faster than expected.
• Big Tech as a Utility: We break down Meta’s massive new deals with Oklo and TerraPower, and why Amazon is targeting 5,000 MW of nuclear capacity by 2039.
• The Reality of Scale: It’s not all smooth sailing. We examine the four massive hurdles—from NRC regulatory bottlenecks to "NIMBY" pushback—that could still relegate these technologies to a niche market.

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🎙️ About Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Hosted by Peter Kelly-Detwiler, Energy Future explores the trends, technologies, and policies driving the global clean-energy transition — from the U.S. grid and renewable markets to advanced nuclear, fusion, and EV innovation.

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