Episode 1458: Think Tank: As Iran war drags on, impact moves from base case to serious scenarios
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Episode 1458: Think Tank: As Iran war drags on, impact moves from base case to serious scenarios
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With the Iran war now in its eighth week, we can expect more serious consequences for chemicals from rising inflation, demand destruction and a prolonged post-war recovery period.
- 43 force majeures in Middle East and Asia, Europe prices hitting record highs
- Sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude oil stored on ships is nearly depleted, exposing markets to greater shortages
- 5-10% of global oil and gas supply is unavailable
- Prepare for demand destruction as global economy adapts to shortages
- Food price inflation likely to hurt poorer nations most, but all economies will suffer
- Inflation may spike to 5-10% as supply shortages impact downstream consumer markets
In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.