In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Middle East director Rob Malley about the state of U.S.-Iran negotiations and how the aftermath of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran could change the region. They discuss why talks remain fraught, how control over the Strait of Hormuz has become central to Iran’s demands, how negotiators might tackle Iran’s nuclear program and how Gulf states are recalibrating relations with Washington and Iran. They then turn to Lebanon, where continued Israeli operations and the future of Hezbollah could test U.S. diplomacy. They also discuss Gaza’s stalled ceasefire framework and the unresolved question of Hamas’s disarmament and Israel’s withdrawal. They end by looking at the growing strains in U.S.-Israel relations and whether Washington has a vision for Iran’s role in a volatile new regional order.

Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out our Iran page.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Renata Segura and Elizabeth Dickinson about Colombia’s presidential election, in which right-wing outsider Abelardo “El Tigre” de la Espriella won by a razor-thin margin. They unpack a bitter campaign and what the result reveals about a country still deeply divided. They assess outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s legacy and the failure of his “total peace” policy, which sought to reduce violence through dialogue with Colombia’s many armed and criminal groups. They explain how those groups increasingly exert power by controlling civilians and local economies, rather than primarily by fighting the state. They also discuss De la Espriella’s promised security crackdown, the dangers it could bring, Latin America’s rightward shift and what to watch as he takes office.

Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out our Colombia page.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ibraheem Bahiss, Crisis Group’s Afghanistan expert based in Kabul, to assess where the country stands nearly five years after the Taliban’s return to power. They discuss the improved security across much of Afghanistan, even as many remain uncertain about the durability of Taliban rule. They examine the Taliban’s sweeping restrictions on women’s and girls’ rights, particularly education, work and public life, and how these have undercut efforts to normalise relations abroad. They also look at the poppy ban and how it has affected rural livelihoods and the drug trade and how the Taliban now generate revenue. They then turn to the sharply deteriorating relations with Pakistan over Islamabad’s accusations that the Taliban are sheltering militants conducting cross-border attacks, and the uncertain prospects for talks between Kabul and Islamabad. Finally, they discuss the Taliban’s engagement with regional powers and their recent outreach to Europe and where the country is headed under their rule.

Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out our Afghanistan page.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran director, to unpack the memorandum of understanding reached between the U.S. and Iran on Sunday to shore up a fragile ceasefire and open the way for further talks. They discuss what is known about the agreement and its provisions on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending hostilities, including in Lebanon. They look at the diplomacy behind the deal, the role of regional mediators and what the agreement reveals about decision-making in Tehran. They also discuss the stumbling blocks ahead during the 60-day timeframe the MOU sets for negotiating a more durable arrangement, including on Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief. Finally, they look at the prospects for a broader regional security dialogue involving states that helped broker the understanding.

For more, check out our Iran page.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Naysan Rafati, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein and Michael Hanna about the shaky U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the state of negotiations between the two countries. Richard first speaks with Naysan about continued U.S.-Iran tit-for-tat exchanges, talks over a possible deal, what an initial agreement might entail and whether the confrontation has strengthened Tehran’s hand. Richard then speaks with Yasmine about how Gulf Arab states’ views of the conflict have shifted and U.S.-Gulf Arab relations. Next, Richard speaks with Mairav about Israel’s perspective, calls within the country’s military and security establishment to return to war, Israel’s campaign in Lebanon and why a change in leadership would not necessarily mean a less hawkish Israeli approach. Lastly, Richard speaks with Michael about U.S. domestic politics around an Iran deal, whether Trump can sell the off-ramp currently on offer and how continued ceasefire violations could still trigger another escalation.

Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out our Middle East & North Africa page.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ali Wyne, Crisis Group’s Senior Research and Advocacy Adviser for U.S.-China and Senior Northeast Asia Analyst William Yang, to discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. They assess the summit’s broader significance, including what it reveals about Trump’s second-term China policy and the shifting balance of power between Washington and Beijing. They unpack the main points of discussion, from trade and technology to the geopolitical flashpoints in the Gulf and Taiwan. They also examine how Taiwan and other regional capitals are viewing the summit, what China and Taiwan may be learning from recent wars, and where U.S.-China relations could be headed.

Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out our U.S. and China pages.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s European Security director, to discuss the latest developments in Ukraine, more than four years into full-scale war with Russia. They talk about the mood in Kyiv, recent battlefield dynamics and how Ukraine’s military continues to adapt as the war grinds on. They discuss the fallout from the war in the Gulf, including pressure on global missile interceptor stocks and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s diplomatic outreach to Gulf Arab states. They also unpack domestic politics in Ukraine and Russia, including growing criticism of President Vladimir Putin from nationalist circles and Moscow’s anxiety around Victory Day. They also look at Putin’s call for a ceasefire, seemingly motivated by fear that Ukrainian strikes will disrupt Victory Day celebrations.

For more, check out our Ukraine page.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.