How Sequence of Returns Risk Hits FIRE Plans Differently by Gender

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How Sequence of Returns Risk Hits FIRE Plans Differently by Gender

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Lucas and Luna dive into a 2025 Vanguard study showing that sequence of returns risk doesn't hit all FIRE savers equally. They explore why women, who typically have longer life expectancies and more conservative asset allocations, face a 12–18 percent higher probability of portfolio failure in the first decade of early retirement. The episode walks through the data: a 50-year-old woman retiring with a 60/40 portfolio and a 4 percent withdrawal rate has a 22 percent chance of depleting assets by age 85 versus 16 percent for a man with identical inputs. Lucas and Luna discuss two practical adjustments: a glidepath that shifts from 70/30 to 50/50 over the first ten years, and the case for a 3.6 percent initial withdrawal rate instead of 4 percent. They also touch on why the FIRE community's one-size-fits-all models ignore gender-specific longevity and risk tolerance, and how a simple stress test based on your own life expectancy can change your safe withdrawal rate by half a percentage point. #SequenceOfReturnsRisk #FIRE #EarlyRetirement #GenderGap #RetirementPlanning #VanguardStudy #PortfolioFailure #SafeWithdrawalRate #Glidepath #LongevityRisk #WomenAndInvesting #AssetAllocation #60-40Portfolio #RetirementIncome #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Finance #PersonalFinance Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

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