Kier's gone, Andy Burnham is the runaway favourite, and the bigger question for property isn't who runs the country - it's who runs the Treasury. This week Adam works through what a new chancellor means for UK mortgage rates, the housing market and your next move. No tribal economics, no hype - just the numbers and what they mean.

There's an election question to settle first, a mortgage backbook converging on new lending rates, Chris Watkin's real-time market data on the withdrawal rate and pricing gap, and a land value tax that could reshape the whole game for a 710-unit portfolio. Plus Trump watch, the macro-scope on mortgage pricing, the "3% world" and the debt, and what Adam is actually buying at 65p in the pound right now.

In this episode:
(00:00) Kemi's out, Burnham's in - framing the week
(08:00) Will there be a general election? Runners and riders
(24:00) The real question: who is the next chancellor?
(34:00) Trump watch & the world economy
(40:00) Chris Watkin's real-time numbers: withdrawal rate & pricing gap
(52:00) Mortgage backbook vs new lending
(66:00) Inflation, the debt & the "3% world"
(78:00) Land value tax: what half a percent really means
(84:00) What Adam is buying right now
(89:00) KCCO - sign-off

▶ Next workshop - PBW11, central London: Join Adam and Rod for a full day on due diligence - on deals, on JV partners, and on the diligence people will run on you. The only real chance to grab proper time with us. Grab a VIP dinner ticket while they last. Google "Property Business Workshop 11" or use the link in the show notes.

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Workshop: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven

The argument was never whether to cut, only how fast. That's gone. There won't be any cuts this year. The next move is a hike, and this episode walks you through exactly why.

Part one of a heavier-than-usual week, split into two because it ran close to three hours. This half is pure macro: the war, the rates U-turn, the real-time market, and the gilts.

Trump Watch - The ceasefire that isn't. Oil came down on hope value, not supply actually returning, and the physical damage to Hormuz is months of work away even if the politics cooperate. Plus an objective audit of the tariff regime: $264bn raised, the deficit untouched, $166bn ordered back out the door with a $23m-a-day interest penalty. Expensive is a better word than winning. And the framework break at the Fed under new chair Kevin Walsh, who wants to scrap forward guidance and the dot plot in favour of "strategic ambiguity."

The Real-Time Market - Chris Watkin's week 22 data, and the first of three independent datasets that all agree on the shape of the market: softening, selectively, not collapsing. Gross sales down 8.9% year on year and down in every single region, outer London off 18%, yet price per square foot still rose 1.7% in a month. Fewer homes selling, the ones that do achieving more per foot. The pounds-per-square-foot index that correlates 98% with the Land Registry, five months ahead.

The Inflation Attitude Survey - Rarely covered, more revealing than half the official data. Median inflation expectations up to 5%, the year-ahead figure jumping to 4%, and 53% now expecting rates to rise. Why belief greases the outcome, and why the Bank fears the survey more than a weak GDP print.

The Gilts and the MPC Call - The five-year closed at 4.375%, that 6% limited company money still stubbornly in place. Hugh Pill already voted for a hike last time, the first vote for higher rates in nearly three years. The curve now prices a base rate higher in a year than today. Adam gives a member-by-member breakdown of Thursday's vote and lands on 7-2, with 6-3 not far behind.

No hype, no sensationalism. The turn is real, but it's a turn, not a screeching handbrake. Build your LTVs, your stress tests, and your fix-versus-tracker calls around the direction, not the exact date.

Part two covers the deep dive: four reports on the affordability wall and why building more won't fix it. Listen next.

Property Business Workshop - Central London, Wednesday 1st July. Real due diligence: on lenders, on JV partners, on deals, and the DD being run on you. Live exercise, no-holds-barred Q&A, VIP dinner. Tickets selling now: search "Property Business Workshop 11" or visit tinyurl.com/pbweleven

Keep calm, listen to the Supplement, and carry on.

Back after a four-week break, Adam runs through everything that's moved in the UK property market over the past month, and the picture has shifted.

Transactions are now down three weeks running, with last week's sold-subject-to-contract figures off around 9% year on year. Adam explains why the slowdown is showing up in June rather than March: the 90-day decision-in-principle window that locked first-time buyers into sub-4% rates has finally run out, and the new world of 4.75 to 5% is quietly pricing people out. First-time buyers are still 55% of the market, so when their borrowing power drops, everything feels it.

Also in this one:

• TrumpWatch: how the Iran situation and the oil price are setting inflation expectations and feeding straight into UK swaps

• The five-year swap's run up towards 4.4% and back, the 30-year gilt near 5.5%, and why deals are now being modelled on 6 to 6.1% money

• The supply glut explained: over-instruction, only 54% of listings actually selling, and a 25% gap between asking and agreed prices

• Why nominal house prices are a nonsense, and how, adjusted for RPI, we're sitting back at Q1 2003

• The gearing-up versus gearing-down trap, and a few honest words on what Rich Dad Poor Dad got wrong about "good debt"

• London: 20, 30, even 40% discounts appearing, and why this might be the best buying window in a decade if the yield can be made to work

• The Labour leadership question, the Makerfield by-election, and what a Burnham win (and his choice of chancellor) could mean for landlords, from a Torsten Bell land value tax to a steadier Pat McFadden

• A grounded look at rent controls, what Scotland's "rent cap" actually did, and the difference between stabilisation and a 1970s rent officer

Plus a word on the upcoming Property Business Workshop in central London, the only day in the UK dedicated to due diligence, run with Rod Turner and this time with special guest Claude alongside for the live due diligence exercise. Booking link: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven

Read the full Supplement every Sunday on LinkedIn and the Property & Poppadoms website. Keep calm, carry on, and come back every Sunday.