『Propenomix with Adam Lawrence』のカバーアート

Propenomix with Adam Lawrence

Propenomix with Adam Lawrence

著者： Adam Lawrence
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今ならプレミアムプランが3カ月 月額99円

2026年5月12日まで。4か月目以降は月額1,500円で自動更新します。

概要

 The UK's Premier Property, Business, Markets & Economics Podcast. With your hosts: Adam Lawrence and Jay Howard. Expert Resident Guests: - Helen Chorley - Piotr Rusinek2022 マネジメント・リーダーシップ リーダーシップ 個人ファイナンス 経済学
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  • Lowering the Speed Limit to Save the Economy (And Other Bureaucratic Delusions)

    Lowering the Speed Limit to Save the Economy (And Other Bureaucratic Delusions)
    2026/03/30
    The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed , Brent crude has blasted past $100 a barrel , and the Bank of England has slammed the brakes on rate cuts . Welcome to another essential reality check on this week's Propenomix Supplement. We are stripping away the mainstream noise to look at exactly how global geopolitics, staggering private credit failures, and a flatlining UK economy are impacting your portfolio right now. The facts have changed, and your strategy needs to change with them. What we cover in this week's episode: Geopolitics & Trumponomics: Tariffs are back on the menu with a maximum threat of 15% . Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict is sending European wholesale gas prices up nearly 100% on the month . The UK Property Market: We've hit a 10-year high for March listings . Transactions are functional , but the glut of supply has led to the longest average time to sell since 2013 . Bond Market Bloodbath: The flagship 10-year gilt is threatening the 5% yield mark for the first time since the financial crisis . We discuss why you must stress-test your debt exits at 6% to 6.25% . Deep Dive: The £1.7bn MFS Collapse: A forensic look at the Market Financial Solutions administration . We break down the "double pledging" allegations , the massive institutional contagion , and the incoming fire sale of 250 Prime Central London properties . Bank of England's 9-0 Hold: Why the MPC voted unanimously to hold the base rate at 3.75% , the BoE's expectation that inflation will bounce back to 3.5% , and the very real threat of stagflation as GDP crawls at 0.1% . The Labour Market & Construction: Why self-employment plummeted by a staggering 242k in 2025 , how businesses are turning to automation instead of hiring , and why the 1.5m homes goal is an utter pipedream as planning apps fall again . Generation Rent's EPC Fantasy: Breaking down the new £10,000 EPC cost cap and why backdoor rent controls will simply drive landlords to sell up and buy 5% government bonds instead . This is not a time for marginal deals . Tune in to get the raw data and the macroeconomic perspective you need to defend your portfolio and spot the generational acquisition opportunities hiding in the distress . Listen now on all major platforms.
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    1 時間 15 分
  • The Per-Capita Recession, 4% Mortgages, and Why 'Wait and See' is the Only Strategy

    The Per-Capita Recession, 4% Mortgages, and Why 'Wait and See' is the Only Strategy
    2026/03/22
    We are officially in a per-capita recession, meaning the average person in the UK is getting steadily poorer, despite the headline vanity metrics trying to suggest otherwise . In this week's agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup, we cut through the noise of the mainstream headlines to deliver the unvarnished reality of the market . Mortgage rates are all over the place, with the potential of rates being cut in the US while being raised in the UK . As Mohamed El-Erian points out, "We are navigating a global economy that is structurally different, not just cyclically delayed. The old playbooks will not work" . If your business model is built on waiting for cheaper debt, you need to change the model or move on . Grab your black armbands, because we are diving deep . In this episode, we cover: Macro Headwinds & Trumponomics: We discuss the ongoing war, the intense volatility in the oil market, and the US Trade Representative's investigation into 60 major economies for "forced labour" and "manufacturing overcapacity" . The Illusion of Growth: We break down the latest GDP Growth report, which printed 0% for growth in January, and explain why the 0.1% uptick in Q4 2025 masks underlying weakness . Property Market Reality Check: A deep dive into the RICS Residential Market Report and Hometrack's Rental Market Index . We explore why rental supply is still 23% below pre-pandemic levels and why the Buy to Let sector represented just 8.4% of gross mortgage advances in Q4 2025 . The Ground Rent Farce: We expose how the proposed £250 cap on ground rents will inadvertently deliver an estimated £8.7 billion windfall to property investors rather than helping owner-occupiers . Demand Support & The SME Crisis: An analysis of the LPDF and Savills report on introducing demand support, and why SME developers are capturing an increasingly small share of the new build market . Gilts & Swaps: The 5-year gilt yield closed the week at 4.35%, and we explain why the next move the Bank of England makes might actually be a rate hike . Links & Resources: Our next Property Business Workshop is selling fast! Join us on Wednesday 22nd April in Central Manchester to discuss tax, risk, deal structuring, and exit options . Secure your tickets here: www.tinyurl.com/pbwten Keep Calm, ALWAYS listen to or read the Supplement, and Carry On .
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    1 時間 6 分
  • The Death of Leasehold & The London Construction Collapse

    The Death of Leasehold & The London Construction Collapse
    2026/02/05

    In this jam-packed episode of Propenomix, we navigate the collision of global macroeconomics and the gritty reality of the UK property market. From the "bull in a china shop" impact of Trumponomics on UK SMEs to the legislative earthquake of the Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill, we strip away the headlines to reveal what the data actually says.

    We deep-dive into the "death of leasehold" and the radical 50% threshold for commonhold conversion, dissect the government's £39bn social housing pledge, and analyze why London's Build-to-Rent sector is facing a construction "cardiac arrest." Plus, we explore why "capital allocators" see yields differently than the rest of us.

    In This Episode:

    🌍 The Macro View: Trumponomics & Trade Wars

    • How UK firms are reacting to US tariff threats and the rise of the "Anti-Coercion Instrument."

    • Why 21% of UK SMEs now rate US tariffs as their #1 economic concern.

    📈 The Market Data: Listings, Lags & Regional Winners

    • Chris Watkin's Stats: A 10-year record for reductions and the return of the "listings glut."

    • Zoopla Index: Why the North West is surging (+3.5%) while London stalls, and the "discipline" dominating Southern sellers.

    • Scotland's Warning: Evidence of landlord consolidation and the 8% LBTT sting.

    ⚖️ Legislative Deep Dive: The Commonhold Revolution

    • The "Feudal" End: The ban on new leasehold flats and the £30k fines enforcing it.

    • The 50% Threshold: How a simple majority could drag an entire block into commonhold (and what happens to the dissenters).

    • Ground Rent Caps: The £250 cap, the 40-year sunset clause, and the abolition of forfeiture.

    🏗️ Sector Spotlight: Social Housing, Co-Living & BTR

    • Social Housing: The truth about the £39bn fund and the "free money" 0.1% loans for providers.

    • The S106 Emergency: Why the "clearing service" is really a distressed asset register.

    • Co-Living Goes Mainstream: Why Earls Court is betting big on co-living and the shift to on-site affordable housing.

    • Build-to-Rent Reality Check: The "delivery lag"—why completions are up 13% but starts have collapsed by 80% in London.

    🧠 The Propenomix Philosophy

    • Yields vs. Growth: Understanding the mindset difference between "BRR hustlers" and institutional "capital allocators."

    Key Quotes:

    "The 'London Premium' has become a 'London Penalty.' Construction costs in the capital are eye-watering, and investors are voting with their wallets."

    "The government is trying to make commonhold robust... but the reliance on members voting for budgets fills me with dread."

    Links:

    Adam's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/

    Daily PropenomAIx Newsletter: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/7392088970785878016/

    Propenomix YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence


    Weekly Sunday Supplement Newsletter: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/
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    1 時間 11 分
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