『Recession Watch with Fexingo: Economic Cycles, Indicators, and What Slowdowns Mean』のカバーアート

Recession Watch with Fexingo: Economic Cycles, Indicators, and What Slowdowns Mean

Recession Watch with Fexingo: Economic Cycles, Indicators, and What Slowdowns Mean

著者： Fexingo
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When the yield curve inverts, when payrolls soften, when the Fed chair uses the word 'transitory' again — Lucas and Luna sit down with the data to ask what it actually means. This is not a panic desk or a cheerleading session; it's a methodical reading of the economic cycle through the lens of real indicators: ISM manufacturing PMI, the Conference Board Leading Index, the Sahm Rule, credit spreads, housing starts, and the Federal Reserve's own dot-plot projections. Every episode takes one or two fresh data points from the week's releases — jobs reports, GDP revisions, consumer sentiment surveys — and traces their implications for inflation, interest rates, corporate earnings, and the probability of a recession in the next 12 months. Lucas brings the historical context and institutional knowledge; Luna presses on the human consequences: what does this mean for a small business owner's borrowing costs, for a mid-career professional's job security, for a retiree's portfolio? They name the sectors most exposed (regional banks, commercial real estate, discretionary retail) and the ones that might weather a downturn (utilities, healthcare, discount grocers). They compare the current cycle to past recessions (1990, 2001, 2008, 2020) with enough specifics to make the comparison useful, not sensational. The listener comes away with a clearer view of where the economy actually stands — and the handful of numbers they should watch next. Because if a recession is coming, the real question isn't if, but when, and how bad? #RecessionWatch #EconomicCycles #FederalReserve #YieldCurve #Inflation #InterestRates #ISM #GDP #JobsReport #SahmRule #CentralBanking #MacroEconomics #BusinessCycle #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Business Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo© 2026 Fexingo. All rights reserved. 経済学
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  • The Consumer Debt Trap That Flashed Red Before Past Recessions

    The Consumer Debt Trap That Flashed Red Before Past Recessions
    2026/06/08
    Consumer credit card delinquencies are rising toward levels that preceded the 2008 financial crisis and the early 1990s recession. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the latest New York Fed data showing households worried about finances at the highest level since July 2022. They drill into the specific delinquency rates for different income brackets, why banks are already tightening lending standards, and what the VIX spike above 18 signals about market anxiety. The conversation connects rising credit card balances to slowing real GDP growth of 1.6 percent and a ten-year Treasury yield at 4.47 percent. Listeners learn why this consumer debt signal matters more than the headline unemployment rate of 4.3 percent, and what history suggests about the lag between delinquency warnings and official recession calls. #ConsumerDebt #CreditCardDelinquencies #RecessionSignal #NewYorkFed #HouseholdFinances #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #ConsumerSpending #BankLendingStandards #VIX #GDPGrowth #TreasuryYields #UnemploymentRate #JulianneCoughlan #MoodysAnalytics #RetailSales #DebtTrap Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    11 分
  • The Recession Signal Hidden in Consumer Credit Card Delinquencies

    The Recession Signal Hidden in Consumer Credit Card Delinquencies
    2026/06/08
    Episode 38 of Recession Watch with Fexingo dives into a leading indicator that is flashing red: consumer credit card delinquencies turning serious. Lucas and Luna break down how the transition from 30-day to 90-day late payments signals real financial strain among lower-income households, especially as the labor market shows pockets of strength. With the VIX spiking 34% in a week and the yield curve still positive but narrowing, they examine why banks are already tightening credit card standards and what the March 2026 Fed data reveals about the consumer credit cycle. This episode connects the dots between rising revolving debt, slowing wage growth, and the hidden risk in the real-time delinquency data that markets may be underestimating. If the last two recessions were preceded by a spike in serious delinquencies, this cycle's pattern is worth watching closely. #ConsumerCredit #CreditCardDebt #Delinquencies #RecessionSignal #EconomicIndicators #HouseholdDebt #FedData #RecessionWatch #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Macro #CreditCycle #WageGrowth #ConsumerSpending #VIX #YieldCurve Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    10 分
  • The Recession Signal Hidden in Consumer Credit Card Debt

    The Recession Signal Hidden in Consumer Credit Card Debt
    2026/06/07
    Episode 37 of Recession Watch with Fexingo dives into consumer credit card debt as a leading recession indicator. Lucas and Luna examine the latest data on revolving credit, delinquency rates, and how the consumer balance sheet is cracking under persistent inflation and higher interest rates. With the VIX spiking 34% in five days and the yield curve still inverted, they connect the dots between household financial stress and broader economic risks. A specific data point: credit card balances hit a record $1.14 trillion in Q4 2025, and delinquencies are rising. This episode drills into why that matters now, in June 2026, as the labor market softens and long-term unemployment surges. No broad overview — just one sharp signal that markets might be underestimating. #RecessionWatch #ConsumerDebt #CreditCardDebt #RecessionIndicator #HouseholdFinance #DelinquencyRates #VIX #YieldCurve #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #ConsumerSpending #Economics #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #Podcast #June2026 #EconomicCycles Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    11 分
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