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  • Why the 3-Month Bill Yield Is Sticky Near 3.78 Percent

    Why the 3-Month Bill Yield Is Sticky Near 3.78 Percent
    2026/06/08
    Lucas and Luna explore why the 3-month Treasury bill yield has barely budged at 3.78% while longer-term yields have moved notably in recent weeks. They unpack what this sticky short-end tells us about market expectations for the Fed, the liquidity preference of investors parking cash, and what it might signal about near-term rate policy. They also reference the recent hot jobs report and its implications for Chair Warsh's policy path, and explain why the bill yield's flatness could be a clue about market stress or complacency. A concise, data-driven conversation for fixed-income enthusiasts. #3MonthTBill #TreasuryBills #FedPolicy #ChairWarsh #JobsReport #YieldCurve #ShortEnd #LiquidityPreference #MoneyMarkets #FixedIncome #BondMarket #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #InterestRates #CashParking #MarketStress #RateCuts Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    6 分
  • What the 3-Month Bill Says About Market Stress Now

    What the 3-Month Bill Says About Market Stress Now
    2026/06/07
    Episode 37 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo drills into the 3-month Treasury bill yield, which sits at 3.78 percent as of June 4, 2026 — flat while the rest of the curve shifts. Lucas and Luna explain why the shortest Treasury is the bond market's canary in the coal mine, how its spread to the fed funds rate signals liquidity stress, and what the flat bill yield tells us about market anxiety versus the hot jobs report that pushed rate cut expectations further out. They walk through the mechanics of the 3-month bill as a cash-equivalent benchmark, recent quirks in the Treasury bill market during QT, and why investors should watch the 3-month yield even if they only own 10-year notes. No fluff, no ticker tape — just a focused conversation about why the front end of the curve matters right now. #TreasuryBills #3MonthTBill #BondMarket #FixedIncome #YieldCurve #FedPolicy #MarketAnxiety #Liquidity #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #BondInvesting #TreasuryYields #QT #FedFundsRate #CashManagement #PortfolioStrategy #ShortEndOfCurve Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    10 分
  • How the 2-10 Spread Steepening Reshapes Bond Strategy

    How the 2-10 Spread Steepening Reshapes Bond Strategy
    2026/06/07
    Episode 36 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo dives into the recent steepening of the 2-year to 10-year yield spread, which hit 38 basis points in early June 2026. Lucas and Luna break down what this curve move signals about the economy, the Fed’s next move, and how bond investors should adjust their portfolios. With the 10-year yield at 4.47 percent and the 2-year at 4.05 percent, the spread has widened from negative territory last year. The hosts explain why this steepening matters for duration positioning, the bond ETFs like TLT and SHY, and what it means for the mortgage market. Specific numbers and real fund flows ground the conversation. A must-listen for fixed-income investors navigating the shifting rate landscape. #YieldCurve #SpreadSteepening #TwoYearTreasury #TenYearTreasury #BondMarket #FixedIncome #FederalReserve #RateCuts #Duration #TLT #SHY #MBS #MortgageRates #BondETF #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Investing Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    6 分
  • What the 30-Year Yield Near 5 Percent Means Now

    What the 30-Year Yield Near 5 Percent Means Now
    2026/06/06
    Episode 35 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo dives into why the 30-year Treasury yield is hovering near 5 percent as of June 6, 2026, and what that signals for long-term borrowers, retirees, and the broader economy. Lucas and Luna examine the latest data showing the 30-year yield at 4.97 percent, up from 4.99 percent earlier in the week, while the 10-year sits at 4.47 percent and the 2-year at 4.05 percent. They discuss the steepening yield curve, the implications of the hot May jobs report that pushed rate-cut expectations further out, and how the long bond is reacting to fiscal and inflation uncertainty. Tune in for a focused, conversational breakdown of the long end of the curve and what bond investors should watch next. #30YearTreasury #LongBond #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #YieldCurve #Fed #RateCuts #Inflation #FiscalPolicy #RetirementIncome #BondInvesting #YieldsNear5Percent #June2026 #Economics #Finance #FixedIncome #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • What the 30-Year Yield Near 5 Percent Means Now

    What the 30-Year Yield Near 5 Percent Means Now
    2026/06/06
    The 30-year Treasury yield is hovering just below 5 percent. Lucas and Luna explain what that level signals about long-term inflation expectations, fiscal policy, and the bond market's view of the next decade. They break down why the long bond is moving independently from the rest of the curve and what that means for mortgage rates, pension funds, and your portfolio. No hot takes, just a clear look at the data as of June 6, 2026. #30YearTreasury #LongBond #YieldCurve #BondMarket #FixedIncome #TreasuryYields #InflationExpectations #FiscalPolicy #FederalReserve #TermPremium #MortgageRates #PensionFunds #PortfolioStrategy #Economics #Investing #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheBondMarketPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    5 分
  • Why the 3-Month T-Bill Yield Signals Market Anxiety

    Why the 3-Month T-Bill Yield Signals Market Anxiety
    2026/06/05
    Lucas and Luna dissect the surprising rise in the 3-month Treasury bill yield to 3.78 percent, up from 3.77. While most attention is on the 10-year and 2-year, the short end of the curve is flashing a subtle warning. With the 10-year yield at 4.49 and the curve steepening, the 3-month rate—a proxy for funding stress and liquidity—has been creeping higher even as the Fed holds rates steady. Lucas explains what drives this yield, how it relates to repo markets and money market funds, and why a rising 3-month yield can signal that banks are hoarding cash. Luna weighs in with a historical example from September 2019 when similar moves preceded a repo crisis. They also explore what the current 42 basis point spread between the 10-year and 2-year tells us about recession odds, and why the 3-month might be the canary in the coal mine. Along the way, they touch on the Fed's interest on reserve balances at 3.65 and how that anchors the front end. A focused look at the forgotten yield that matters. #3MonthTBill #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #ShortEnd #LiquidityRisk #FundingStress #FedPolicy #IOER #MoneyMarkets #RepoMarket #YieldCurve #CurveSteepening #EconomicIndicator #RecessionSignal #Finance #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • What the 2-Year Yield Tells You About Rate Cuts Now

    What the 2-Year Yield Tells You About Rate Cuts Now
    2026/06/05
    The 2-year Treasury yield has been hovering near 4.08 percent as of early June 2026, and it's sending a very specific signal about when the Fed might actually cut rates. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why the short end of the curve matters more than the 10-year for rate-cut timing, how the 2-year yield has moved in lockstep with Fed fund futures, and what the current 42-basis-point spread between the 10-year and 2-year says about market expectations. They also explain the mechanics — why a falling 2-year yield often precedes the first rate cut, and why the current level suggests the market is pricing in one cut later this year, but not a full easing cycle. No jargon, no fluff. Just the bond market signal that matters most right now. #2YearTreasury #RateCuts #FederalReserve #BondMarket #YieldCurve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #TreasuryYields #FixedIncome #Investing #Economics #Finance #FOMC #FedFundsRate #ShortEnd #MarketExpectations #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 分
  • Why Credit Ratings Are Taking Over Corporate Bond Trading

    Why Credit Ratings Are Taking Over Corporate Bond Trading
    2026/06/04
    Lucas and Luna explore how credit ratings have become the dominant force in corporate bond trading, even surpassing yield in some strategies. They examine the shift from ratings as compliance tools to active trading signals, using recent data on investment-grade ETF flows and the spread between AAA and BBB bonds. The episode breaks down why traders now watch rating agency moves as closely as Fed statements, and what the 41-basis-point spread between 10-year and 2-year yields tells us about credit market confidence. A focused look at a quiet revolution in fixed-income markets. #CreditRatings #CorporateBonds #InvestmentGrade #SpreadTrading #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #S&P500 #ETFs #LQD #IG #HYG #YieldCurve #FedPolicy #RiskManagement #BondTrading Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分