The Budget Just Quietly Changed the Math On Canadian Housing
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The Budget Just Quietly Changed the Math On Canadian Housing
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Nick and Dan break down the one line in the Spring Economic Update that actually matters: Ottawa wants private insurers to cover 5–8 unit buildings, with more flexibility for triplexes and fourplexes. Plus $7B accelerated for the Apartment Construction Loan Program.
The backdrop has flipped — population growth went from 3.2% to -0.2%, rental starts hit 5x the historical average, and asking rents are down ~9% since late 2024.
The core idea: Housing supply doesn't get built when politicians tweet. It gets built when a lender says yes. Legal density is permission, not a home. Policy can reduce friction but cannot repeal math.
The next phase isn't rate shock — it's financing, absorption, and project viability.
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