This week Eric & Cobus sit down with Wu Peng, the director-general of the department of African affairs in the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, for his perspective on a wide range of issues that are impacting relations between the two regions.

The conversation also features questions from a trio of experts in China-Africa relations including:

• Gyude Moore, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development (@gyude_moore)
• Zainab Usman, director of the Africa program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (@MissZeeUsman)
• Aggrey Mutambo, senior diplomatic affairs writer for the Daily Nation and The East African newspaper (@agmutambo)

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Since its inception in 2013, Chinese government officials have insisted that the Belt and Road is solely an economic initiative and does not have any military motivations. But the BRI's civil-military distinction is no longer as clear cut as it used to be. President Xi Jinping himself called for a strong BRI security system to protect China's overseas interests, people and property.

One little-known aspect of the BRI is that much of the overseas construction, particularly ports, must conform to standards that conform to the People's Liberation Army's requirements. So, while today there's little evidence that China is leveraging the BRI for security or military purposes, there are concerns that it is positioning to be able to do so in the future should the need arise.

Daniel Russel, vice president for international security and diplomacy at the New York-based Asia Society Policy Institute, examined the security dimensions of the BRI in a recent paper. Daniel joins Eric & Cobus to discuss what he calls the Belt and Road's "civil-military fusion" in maritime, terrestrial and space environments.

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Watch a discussion with the authors of ASPI's report Weaponizing the Belt and Road Initiative: https://youtu.be/PX5PnnnYrFw

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Anti-immigrant protests in South Africa have raised difficult questions about race, class, and who gets targeted during waves of xenophobic anger. While Black African migrants have faced growing hostility, Chinese migrants and other foreign communities have largely avoided the same scrutiny.

This week, Eric, Cobus, and Géraud examine why that is, and what it reveals about poverty, politics, and state dysfunction in South Africa. They also unpack a new set of China-South Africa trade protocols that could quietly expand bilateral trade, especially as Pretoria's relationship with Washington becomes more strained.

Finally, they reflect on recent conversations in Nairobi, South Africa, Beijing, and New York about China, Africa, and the Global South's place in a rapidly changing world order.

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

South Africa's anti-immigrant protests
Why some migrants are targeted
Are Chinese migrants part of the backlash?
China-South Africa trade protocols
Africa's trade imbalance with China
African agency in U.S.-China competition

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When China removed import tariffs on goods from all 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic relations earlier this year, many hailed the move as a breakthrough that could boost African exports and help narrow the growing trade imbalance between the two sides.

While tariff-free access makes it easier for African products to enter the Chinese market, experts caution that tariffs are only one piece of the puzzle. The bigger challenge, says Jing Gu, a senior research fellow at the Institute of Development Studies, is ensuring that African exporters are truly prepared to compete in one of the world's most demanding markets.

Jing joins Eric and Géraud to explain why African governments, businesses, and trade institutions need to strengthen their understanding of the Chinese market, build closer commercial relationships, and develop the logistics, distribution networks, and market expertise needed to succeed in China.

• China's Zero Tariff Initiative
• Market Access vs. Market Readiness
• Exporting Successfully to China
• Building China Market Expertise
• African Trade Policy Gaps
• Competing in China's Market
• Rethinking FOCAC Trade Priorities
• The Future of China-Africa Trade

Show Notes:

• Institute of Development Studies: From market access to strategic openness: The new China–Africa business relationship by Jing Gu
• South China Morning Post: Coffee, chilies and cashews: a new recipe to spice up China-Africa trade relations by Jevans Nyabiage
• The China-Global South Project: China's Zero-Tariff Promise to Africa Masks a Deepening Trade Imbalance by Thierry Pairault

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Kenya's landmark debt restructuring deal with China, announced last year, converted $3 billion in outstanding China Exim Bank loans from U.S. dollars to Chinese yuan. The currency switch could save the East African country more than $200 million in debt servicing costs.

Not surprisingly, other countries in Asia and Africa are now exploring similar arrangements to reduce their debt burdens. But a new report from the development finance research lab AidData argues that Kenya's savings came mostly from the restructuring terms — not from the yuan conversion itself.

AidData's Oshin Pandey and Sailor Miao join Eric and Cobus to explain how the deal worked, why it matters, and why there is more to this arrangement than most headlines suggest.

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• Kenya's landmark China debt deal
• Debt restructuring vs. yuan conversion
• Why AidData challenges the narrative
• Ethiopia's restructuring prospects
• China's evolving lending strategy
• The future of sovereign debt relief

Show Notes:

• AidData: Kenya's USD-to-RMB Debt Conversion Was Really a Restructuring by Sailor Miao and Oshin Pandey
• The China-Global South Project: Kenya's Chinese Debt Swap Comes With a Hidden Currency Risk

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The Chinese government this week unveiled a new vision for the emerging post-American-led international order. In a new white paper, Beijing argued that the existing global system does not need to be replaced or rebuilt. Instead, it called for the United Nations to remain at the center of global governance while giving developing countries a greater voice in international decision-making.

Eric and Cobus discuss China's push for global governance reform and why many African countries are backing Beijing's position. Plus, Kenya becomes the latest front in the contest between China and Taiwan after Nairobi acquiesced to Beijing's pressure and blocked Taiwanese delegates from attending an oceans forum in Mombasa.

• China's new vision for global governance
• Why African countries support Beijing's proposal
• The UN's role in a changing world order
• China's growing influence in the Global South
• Kenya blocks Taiwanese delegates from oceans forum
• The escalating China–Taiwan contest in Africa

Show Notes:

• Full text: More Just and Equitable Global Governance: China's Principles, Proposals and Actions
• South China Morning Post: The white paper making China's case for new rules for the world's new frontiers by Orange Wang
• Al Jazeera: Taiwan accuses Kenya of deporting conference delegates on China's behalf

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Taiwan's delegates to the Our Ocean Conference scheduled to take place in the Kenyan port city of Mombasa next week will not be permitted to participate, according to a well-placed source. If this is the case, it would mark the third major setback for Taiwan in Africa over the past several weeks.

Last month, the digital rights conference Rightscon was canceled in Lusaka, in part due to pressure from the Chinese embassy to block the participation of a small group of delegates from Taiwan. Around the same time, three African Indian Ocean island states refused to grant Taiwan President Lai Ching-te permission to overfly for a scheduled trip to Eswatini.

Plus, Eric, Cobus & Géraud discuss how a labor dispute at a massive Chinese-run cobalt mine in the DRC came to an end and the latest in the U.S.-China critical minerals competition in Africa.

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• Taiwan's shrinking diplomatic space in Africa
• Kenya, China, and the Taiwan question
• Congo's critical minerals and coltan smuggling
• Labor unrest at a major Chinese-owned mine
• Resource nationalism vs. mining investment
• The global race for critical mineral supply chains

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Dan Kobayashi spent 16 years working as a U.S. diplomat focused on African issues, both at posts in Lesotho, Zambia, and Malawi, among others, and at the State Department's intelligence bureau in Washington, D.C. He had a close-up view of how U.S.-Africa policy has evolved over the years, particularly as it relates to China's expanding presence on the continent.

Today, Dan is out of government and works as a geopolitical risk consultant in Geneva, where he also writes for his new Expatriach Substack. He joins Eric, Cobus, and Géraud to share an insider's perspective on the current state of U.S. policy towards Africa and why the notion that Washington is competing with Beijing for influence in the region is outdated.

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode

• Inside Washington's Africa policymaking
• Trump's changing approach to Africa
• The China "debt trap" debate
• U.S.-China competition in Africa
• Aid cuts, visas, and diplomacy
• What's next for U.S.-Africa relations?

Show Notes:

• Sign up to The Expatriach Substack
• Expatriarch: USAID Is Unlikely to Be Replaced With Something Better Any Time Soon, So Stop Pretending by Dan Kobayashi
• Expatriarch: My Resignation from the State Department by Dan Kobayashi

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