Markets ripped on the Iran ceasefire headlines, but Mike says the bigger bearish process may still be unfolding.

Mike and David break down why Bitcoin, oil, global liquidity, and the S&P’s 200-day moving average are all flashing mixed signals, and why the real bottom may still require more pain, patience, and weak-hand capitulation.

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📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKING
https://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
2:56 Market Reactions to Ceasefire
6:28 Analyzing the Bull & Bear Cases
11:02 The Pessimist's Perspective
15:34 Iran's Strategic Position
22:37 Understanding the Liquidity Cycle
26:58 The Long-Term View on Bitcoin
31:34 Short-Term Market Signals
36:08 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin is down 47% from the highs, but Mike says the real “fat pitch” still hasn’t arrived.

Mike and Ryan break down where BTC could actually bottom using realized price, the 200-week moving average, and deep value onchain signals, plus why oil, Iran, rates, and recession risk still matter more than most crypto investors think.

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📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKING

https://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne

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🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE

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https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/

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https://x.com/the_defi_report

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

2:16 Buffett's Market Perspective

4:45 Galaxy One Staking Launch

6:31 War's Impact on Markets

11:07 Energy Crisis Analysis

14:03 Fed Rate Predictions

18:11 Speculating on Trump's Announcement

24:50 Bitcoin Price Analysis

28:14 Deep Value & Market Strategy

32:53 Altcoins & Crypto Equities

35:04 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

The Nasdaq just broke its 200-day moving average. In 2022, that was the signal for a 35% collapse. Is history repeating?

Mike and Ryan dive into the "Complacency Trap," why the war in Iran is actually a strategic play for China’s oil, and the onchain data suggesting Bitcoin hasn't hit "Deep Value" yet. They also break down the 2022 analog, the 6.4% mortgage rate reality, and why the "Trump Prize" won't save the markets this time.

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📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE

https://bankless.cc/Galaxy

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🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE

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https://x.com/the_defi_report

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:43 Market Complacency & The War in Iran

7:45 Geopolitical Implications of Oil

10:04 The US-China Connection

13:26 Lessons from 2022

16:44 On-Chain Bitcoin Insights

22:14 Risk Asset Market Psychology

26:33 ETF Inflows and Market Health

28:54 Bitcoin Price Targets

32:44 TDR Portfolio Update

33:56 Patience in Bear Markets

36:28 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.