The global economy is facing its weakest growth outlook since 2009. What happens when geopolitical conflict collides with an already fragile energy market?

In this episode of The Decisive, we examine the cascading macroeconomic impacts of recent global disruptions and the resulting negative supply shocks that have forced economists to revise their forecasts. With global real GDP growth downgraded to just 2.4% and inflation projections rising due to energy and food prices, the economic divide between oil-exporting and oil-importing nations is becoming ever more pronounced.

What You'll Learn:

The Macro Outlook
Discover why growth forecasts have been lowered and what our base-case assumption of $100/barrel oil means for the delicate balance between controlling inflation and avoiding recession.

The Great Divide
Explore the stark contrast in economic fortunes: Energy exporters like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are weathering the storm, while highly vulnerable importers such as India, Egypt, and the Philippines face more acute macroeconomic pressures.

Central Bank Dilemmas
Understand how major central banks worldwide are navigating the difficult choice between taming persistent inflation and preventing an economic downturn—and why their responses could determine the trajectory of the global economy.

Beyond the Barrel
Uncover the hidden vulnerabilities in global supply chains, from refined fuels and fertilizers to the unexpected fallout in non-oil sectors like tourism, logistics, and real estate across the Middle East and Asia Pacific.

Regional Deep Dives
Get detailed analysis of how the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Asia Pacific (APAC) regions are experiencing these shocks differently, with vulnerability indices revealing which countries face the greatest macro-financial risks.

Join our experts for a comprehensive, data-driven breakdown of vulnerabilities, inflation dynamics, and macroeconomic risks defining the global economy today.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Global Economic Outlook: April 2026
• Picture This: What Middle East Supply Disruptions Mean for the Asia-Pacific Region
• Click here for our special report on the impact of the Middle East war on commodity prices

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Middle East war
• Global Executive Summary

Credits:

• Host: Ken Wattret
• Guests: Ralf Wiegert, Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, Diego Iscaro, Ben Herzon
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

As pivotal elections approach in the United States, Brazil, and Ethiopia, global businesses are navigating a rapidly evolving landscape of risks and opportunities. In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence experts John Raines (Head of North America Country Risk), Rafael Amiel (Head of Latin America Economics), and Jordan Anderson (Principal Analyst, Sub-Saharan Africa Country Risk) to examine how political outcomes through 2026 will influence government stability, economic policy, and geopolitical risk well into 2027 and beyond.

Listeners will gain exclusive insights into potential market volatility as the panel explores the implications of the U.S. midterms, Brazil's presidential race, and Ethiopia's general elections. The discussion covers how shifting political dynamics may impact trade, supply chains, regulatory frameworks, and fiscal strategies—key considerations for multinational corporations and investors.

Key topics include:

• Election outlooks in the U.S., Brazil, and Ethiopia and their impact on government stability
• Fiscal and monetary policy risks in Brazil and the U.S.
• Geopolitical and security risks in Ethiopia, including implications for regional stability and foreign investment
• Trade negotiations and the strategic role of commodities in Brazil's foreign policy
• Key indicators to monitor ahead of major elections for early risk detection

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Geopolitical Risk Brief: April 2026
• Russia-Ukraine War: Three Conflict Development Pathways in the Next 12 Months
• Click here to subscribe to our Geopolitical and Economic Risk Monthly newsletter

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Global Executive Summary: Conflict-related economic fallout to continue
• Middle East war
• Currency outlooks

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guests: John Raines, Rafael Amiel, Jordan Anderson
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence economist Yan Hoong for an outlook on the electronics and semiconductor landscape through 2026—taken from a March 12 client webinar.

Yan explains why memory remains a big source of procurement and pricing anxiety, with tightness persisting in both advanced and conventional memory as suppliers shift capacity toward higher-end products. Yan unpacks how this constraint is already spilling into downstream categories like computers and communications equipment, and why price pressure could linger until new capacity meaningfully comes online in late 2027 to 2028.

The conversation also broadens beyond AI hype: while AI and data centers continue to pull demand (especially for high-bandwidth memory and advanced DRAM), Yan points to a gradual recovery in the broader electronics cycle, with mixed signals across end markets. Aerospace and defense and AI-led infrastructure stand out as growth areas, while consumer electronics and automotive remain softer, reinforced by slowing light vehicle production and divergent PMI new order trends.

Finally, Yan breaks down the January 2026 Section 232 tariff announcement, outlining how its pricing impact on US semiconductors may be limited due to narrow scope and broad exemptions for domestic use, with exposure more concentrated in re-export pathways. The episode closes by connecting pricing dynamics across regions—highlighting how memory-heavy supply chains are driving sharper producer price escalation in places like South Korea—while legacy components remain comparatively stable.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Electronics Supply Chain Outlook
• Click here for our special report on the impact of the Middle East war on commodity prices
• Click here to access our webinar on powering AI infrastructure in a volatile world
• Subscribe to our Supply Chain Essentials newsletter.

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Commodity Price Watch Monthly (full report)
• Purchasing Environment
• US tariff plans

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guest: Yan Hoong
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun