エピソード

  • What the Fed Makes of Sticky Services Inflation

    What the Fed Makes of Sticky Services Inflation
    2026/06/08
    The May CPI report showed core services inflation ticking up again, and the Fed is paying close attention. Lucas and Luna break down why services inflation is stickier than goods inflation, what the latest data says, and how the Fed's policy path might be affected. They discuss the role of housing costs, the impact of tariffs on services, and what the breakeven inflation rate signals about market expectations. A focused look at the one number the Fed cares about most right now: core services ex-housing. #CoreServicesInflation #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #CPI #Inflation #ServicesSector #HousingCosts #Tariffs #BreakevenInflation #InterestRates #FOMC #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #StickyInflation #MayCPI Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
    続きを読む 一部表示
    7 分
  • What the Fed Sees in the Tariff Fight Right Now

    What the Fed Sees in the Tariff Fight Right Now
    2026/06/07
    Episode 37 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo dives into the latest tariff escalation announced June 4—fresh U.S. tariffs on 60 economies over forced labor trade practices. Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed is watching this more closely than the headline inflation numbers, how it could feed into sticky core services inflation, and what the bond market's flat 5 percent long-term yield is telling us. They connect the tariff conflict to the Fed's delicate balancing act between labor market strength and price stability, using the April PCE data and the May ADP payrolls as context. Plus, a brief note on how listener support keeps the show ad-free. #FederalReserve #Tariffs #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #CoreServicesInflation #PCE #ADP #BondMarket #TenYearYield #LaborMarket #TradePolicy #FOMC #Economics #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FedWatch #TariffWar Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
    続きを読む 一部表示
    7 分
  • Why the Fed Is Watching the Tariff Fight

    Why the Fed Is Watching the Tariff Fight
    2026/06/07
    The U.S. just proposed fresh tariffs on 60 economies over forced labor trade practices. Lucas and Luna break down why the Federal Reserve cares about a trade policy move that isn't monetary policy at all. They explain the tariff-inflation feedback loop, how a 3.62 percent federal funds rate interacts with rising import costs, and what the core PCE reading of 129.6 tells us about whether the Fed can hold its line. Plus, a closer look at why the ten-year breakeven inflation rate of 2.36 percent hasn't budged despite the escalation. If you've wondered how trade wars complicate rate decisions, this is the episode for you. #FederalReserve #Tariffs #TradePolicy #Inflation #CorePCE #FedFundsRate #BreakevenInflation #SupplyChain #ImportPrices #MonetaryPolicy #CentralBanking #Economics #FOMC #TradeWar #GlobalTrade #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FedPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
    続きを読む 一部表示
    10 分
  • What the Fed Makes of Sticky Core Services Inflation

    What the Fed Makes of Sticky Core Services Inflation
    2026/06/06
    Episode 35 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna drill into core services excluding housing — the inflation component the Fed’s own research says is most tied to the labor market. With CPI core rising to 335.4 and the 10-year breakeven stuck at 2.36, they explore why the Fed is watching wage growth in low-productivity service sectors, how the May jobs report will shape the June FOMC decision, and why the recent equity sell-off (Nasdaq down 5.1% in five days) hasn’t changed the Fed’s calculus. No hot takes — just the specific data points the Fed is actually discussing behind closed doors. #FederalReserve #InterestRates #CoreInflation #ServicesInflation #FOMC #MonetaryPolicy #LaborMarket #WageGrowth #CPI #PCE #MayJobsReport #TenYearYield #Nasdaq #StockMarketSellOff #Economics #Macro #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
    続きを読む 一部表示
    9 分
  • What the Fed Reads Into the May Jobs Number

    What the Fed Reads Into the May Jobs Number
    2026/06/06
    With the May jobs report due Friday and long-term unemployment already trending up, Lucas and Luna unpack what the Fed is actually looking for in the payrolls data. They argue that the headline number matters less than the composition: full-time versus part-time jobs, labor force participation among prime-age workers, and the stubborn rise in the long-term unemployed. Using the latest ADP print of 122,000 private payrolls and the ten-year yield hovering near 4.54%, they explain why the Fed might hold rates steady even if Friday's number comes in hot. They also examine a hidden metric—the share of unemployed who have been out of work for 27 weeks or more—and why it's flashing a warning that rate cuts alone can't fix. A focused, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the Fed's next move. #FederalReserve #JobsReport #MayJobs #LongTermUnemployment #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #ADP #LaborMarket #Payrolls #FedPivot #TenYearYield #EconomicData #Inflation #RateHikes #JobsData #Economy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
    続きを読む 一部表示
    8 分
  • What the Fed Reads Into Long-Term Unemployment

    What the Fed Reads Into Long-Term Unemployment
    2026/06/05
    Episode 33 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo drills into the surge in long-term unemployment — workers jobless for 27 weeks or more. With the May jobs report due tomorrow and the rate of people out of work for half a year rising even as headline payrolls look solid, Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed watches this metric as a signal of labor market scarring. They connect it to the Fed's current hold on rates, the sticky inflation picture, and what the Bernanke-era research on hysteresis means for policy today. A focused, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read between the lines of central bank communication. #FederalReserve #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #JobsReport #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #Hysteresis #Bernanke #Fed #Economics #FOMC #Employment #RateHikes #ADP #CPI #CoreInflation #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
    続きを読む 一部表示
    9 分
  • The Fed's Hidden Labor Market Indicator Nobody Talks About

    The Fed's Hidden Labor Market Indicator Nobody Talks About
    2026/06/05
    Lucas and Luna dive into the Federal Reserve's quiet focus on the duration of unemployment, not just the headline jobless rate. With long-term unemployment surging to levels not seen since the 2010s, they unpack why this metric matters more than the monthly payrolls number. Using data from the latest JOLTS report and the upcoming May jobs report, they explain how the Fed uses the share of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more to gauge labor market slack and future wage pressures. The episode explores why this indicator is often overlooked by markets, how it influences the Fed's thinking on rate cuts, and what it reveals about structural changes in the economy. A must-listen for anyone trying to make sense of the Fed's data-dependent approach. #FederalReserve #LaborMarket #Unemployment #LongTermUnemployment #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #Economy #JobsReport #JOLTS #WageInflation #InterestRates #EmploymentDuration #HiddenMetrics #CentralBanking #EconomicData #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
    続きを読む 一部表示
    8 分
  • The Fed's Hidden Metric on Long-Term Unemployment

    The Fed's Hidden Metric on Long-Term Unemployment
    2026/06/04
    Episode 31 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo dives into a less-noticed but critical data point: the surge in long-term unemployment. With job openings at 7.6 million and private payrolls adding 122,000 in May, you might think the labor market is tight. But Lucas and Luna examine the rising share of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more—a metric the Fed watches closely for signs of structural damage. They connect this to the Fed's rate stance, the sticky CPI reading of 332.4, and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropping to 2.38%. How does a growing pool of long-term unemployed influence the Fed's willingness to cut rates? And what does it mean for wage growth and economic scarring? This episode offers a focused look at one number that tells a deeper story about the recovery's uneven shape. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #JobOpenings #Inflation #CPI #FOMC #WageGrowth #EconomicScarring #RateCuts #Employment #ADP #BreakevenInflation #StructuralUnemployment #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
    続きを読む 一部表示
    7 分