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  • Did the most impactful 24-hour period of macro and micro data in history support a continuation of the risk-on Market Regime?

    Did the most impactful 24-hour period of macro and micro data in history support a continuation of the risk-on Market Regime?
    2026/04/30
    Today’s Macro Minute focuses on whether markets are underpricing geopolitical risk tied to the US–Israel–Iran ceasefire. While short-term positioning signals suggest some complacency, the broader macro backdrop remains supportive of a risk-on regime, driven by resilient growth and strong global liquidity—particularly out of China.
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    6 分
  • When will the BOJ act forcefully enough to tone down volatility in the long end of the JGB market?

    When will the BOJ act forcefully enough to tone down volatility in the long end of the JGB market?
    2026/04/28
    The Bank of Japan delivered a hawkish hold but stopped short of stabilizing long-end bond volatility, reinforcing a persistent global headwind for duration. While liquidity risks are rising, markets have not yet signaled a shift to risk-off conditions.
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    7 分
  • Is it time for investors to take profits?

    Is it time for investors to take profits?
    2026/04/27
    Markets head into a pivotal week as mega-cap earnings and global central bank decisions collide with elevated expectations. While the broader macro backdrop remains supportive, the risk of near-term profit-taking is rising.
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    5 分
  • When does our Jobless Recovery theme stop being bullish for stocks?

    When does our Jobless Recovery theme stop being bullish for stocks?
    2026/04/24
    Darius argues that what looks like weakness in the labor market is actually structurally bullish in the near term, as AI-driven productivity gains support margins, earnings, and broader economic resilience. Investors are still underpricing the full impact of Paradigm C, the Productivity Boom, and expanding liquidity, which continue to act as tailwinds for risk assets.
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    6 分
  • Is the consensus bullishness regarding the earnings outlook justified?

    Is the consensus bullishness regarding the earnings outlook justified?
    2026/04/23
    Strong earnings growth and accelerating global liquidity continue to support a pro-risk market environment. Despite geopolitical noise and crowded positioning, the underlying macro regime remains firmly risk-on. The key takeaway: focus on earnings and liquidity trends, not headlines, and stay systematically invested.
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    5 分
  • Is Kevin Warsh a hawk or a dove?

    Is Kevin Warsh a hawk or a dove?
    2026/04/22
    In today’s episode, we break down rising policy and geopolitical risks, including Warsh’s testimony and Hormuz concerns, and explain how investors should approach the potential for sharp, non-linear market moves.
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    6 分
  • What matters most to asset markets—March Retail Sales, Kevin Warsh’s testimony, or the US-Iran ceasefire?

    What matters most to asset markets—March Retail Sales, Kevin Warsh’s testimony, or the US-Iran ceasefire?
    2026/04/21
    Markets continue to look through headlines and focus on the bigger picture, as resilient economic data and improving liquidity conditions reinforce a risk-on regime. In this episode, we break down why regime shifts—not individual catalysts—are what truly drive asset prices.
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    6 分
  • Should investors de-risk ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing tomorrow?

    Should investors de-risk ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing tomorrow?
    2026/04/20
    Policy risk takes center stage as Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing approaches, with markets bracing for potential interest rate volatility. In today’s Macro Minute, Darius breaks down why investors should stay disciplined—preparing for near-term turbulence while remaining focused on the bigger picture, including the long-term case for global equities outperforming U.S. markets.
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    5 分