SpaceX is buying Cursor for ~$60B, and one of the early backers was SBF. So was a convicted fraudster also the greatest VC of all time? That's where June's random ramblings start. From there: why I've flipped from AI doom toward AI as a force multiplier, whether deep subject-matter expertise gets MORE valuable as the world fills with AI slop, why legacy brands (KPMG, CBS, People) might actually gain power in an AI world, why "my edge is a long time horizon" is usually a tell for underperformance, and the cracks showing up in Polymarket and prediction markets.

This episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense. The AI landscape has never been more crowded or more confusing. Everyone's telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody's asking the harder question: which tools actually give you an edge?

I'm sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors, from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools, and where each one actually fits in a real research process. If you're trying to build an AI-enabled workflow that sharpens your judgment rather than replacing it, you won't want to miss this.

Join us on June 25th - register now: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-Solutions

Chapters:

00:00 What's on the menu this month

02:05 Sponsor: my AI webinar with AlphaSense

03:22 Was SBF the greatest VC of all time? (Cursor, SpaceX, Anthropic)

09:48 Do any frauds or blowups hide assets this valuable? (GGP, Enron, EOG)

11:42 Why I flipped from AI doom toward AI as a force multiplier

13:41 Why AI rewards the creative, and the top 0.1% problem

16:18 AI slop and the rising return on deep expertise (Knicks, ABVX)

20:12 KPMG's hallucinated AI report and secondhand hallucinations

21:57 Does brand get MORE valuable in an AI world? (CBS, People, TMZ, ChatGPT licensing)

25:14 Why "my edge is a long time horizon" is usually a lie

28:50 Forced selling, diamond hands, and the seven-years-of-underperformance letter

32:02 My three-year rule

32:53 Polymarket, MicroStrategy, and the limits of the rulebook

35:00 Prediction markets are reflexive: why nobody's waging "Polymarket wars" yet

37:36 Wrap

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

The market has decided YouGov ($YOU.L) is an AI loser and cut it ~50% in a year. Jonathan Cohen of Zipperline Capital thinks it's an AI winner trading at 6-7x EBITDA, with a 20-year proprietary dataset AI makes more valuable, not less. We spend the first half on the UK as an "emerging market" (corporate governance discounts, why buybacks are finally happening, and why you can never compare UK and US multiples), then go deep on YouGov: the panel, the moat, synthetic data, and why the company is cancelling its dividend to buy back stock.

This episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense.

The AI landscape has never been more crowded — or more confusing. Everyone's telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody's asking the harder question: which tools actually give you an edge?

I'm sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors — from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools — and where each one actually fits in a real research process. If you're trying to build an AI-enabled workflow that sharpens your judgment rather than replacing it, you won't want to miss this.

Join us on June 25th - register now: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-Solutions

Chapters:

00:00 Why YouGov could be the AI winner the market is misreading

02:56 Why Jonathan Cohen runs a UK and Europe small/mid-cap book

08:01 Why you can never compare UK and US multiples

13:08 What UK analyst coverage actually tells you

17:37 The shift toward UK buybacks and capital allocation

22:00 The "buybacks kill liquidity" myth

25:11 What YouGov really is: a proprietary data business

31:19 Inside the panel: why people answer, and why retention is the moat

36:52 Why the market thinks YouGov is an AI loser

38:19 The bull case: why AI makes YouGov more valuable

40:55 Synthetic data, and why it breaks

46:28 Trust as a moat in a world of AI slop

52:27 Pushback: Chegg, Wix, and the real AI losers

56:51 Content businesses vs distribution businesses

01:00:14 Music, media, and what compounds through disruption

01:05:38 Closing

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Alex Roepers of Atlantic Investment Management lays out two deeply cheap special situations: Dauch (DCH) and Nomad Foods (NOMD). In both, management is sending "dark arts" signals (an aggressive CEO payout struck well above the current price, heavy insider buying) that point to an inflection the market hasn't paid for yet. We dig into the $300M merger synergies at Dauch, the auto-cycle and leverage risk, the governance red flags, the private-label threat to Nomad's frozen-food brands, and whether the European discount on both is real or just doldrums.

This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Join Andrew, Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompts, and Ben Collins of AlphaSense for a webinar breaking down the modern AI stack for investors: where horizontal platforms, agentic workflows, and finance-specific tools each actually fit in a real research process. Recording June 16, live June 25. Register here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-Solutions

Disclosure: long DCH and NOMD

Chapters:

0:00 Two cheap special situations and the "dark arts" setup

1:10 Sponsor: AlphaSense and the AI-stack-for-investors webinar

2:29 Alex Roepers, Atlantic Investment Management

3:04 Dauch ($DCH): the GKN, Melrose and Dowlais backstory

7:05 Why Atlantic made $DCH a core position at ~$6

9:03 The governance knock: a company named after a sub-1% CEO

13:42 Dark arts: the PSU grant that only pays above $12

15:11 Underwriting the $300M merger synergies

18:13 Leverage, capital allocation and the path to buybacks

24:42 The auto cycle and why 5x free cash flow caps the downside

29:12 Nomad Foods ($NOMD): the frozen-food bull case

33:14 Nomad by the numbers: 5.5x earnings, 7% yield

35:39 The bear case: private label, Aldi and a new CEO

39:21 Would Martin Franklin ever sell?

41:22 Dividend or buyback at these levels?

43:00 Is Franklin distracted by APi Group?

45:27 The kitchen-sink reset and a fall investor day

47:37 "Addback city": cleaning up the earnings number

50:02 The European discount: real or imagined?

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Abivax posted maybe the best ulcerative colitis data anyone's seen, then crashed 60% on a cancer signal Adam May argues is statistical noise. We dig into whether $ABVX is now a mispriced takeout: the maintenance efficacy that beat Rinvoq, how the scary "seven cancer cases" collapse to two, the blackbox question, the Crohn's skew, and the part two safety data due within weeks. Then a quick look at Nectar (NKTR), its alopecia areata data, and the Eli Lilly lawsuit.

This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense, and specifically Andrew's upcoming AI webinar with them: breaking down the modern AI stack for investors with Dave Wang (Wall Street Prompts) and Ben Collins (AlphaSense). Goes live June 25. Register here.

Chapters:

00:00 Intro and disclosure (long ABVX and NKTR)

01:03 Sponsor: AlphaSense AI webinar for investors

02:33 The biotech "GOAT" returns

03:33 Abivax setup: induction vs maintenance, the stakes

06:38 The bar: clinical remission and Rinvoq

10:14 Blowout maintenance data, and endoscopic remission that doubles Rinvoq

14:23 The data drops, then a 60% crash

16:31 The cancer scare, taken apart case by case

24:45 Why it's statistical noise: mechanism, clustering, base rates

28:50 Adverse-event capture and the phase 2 safety database

33:57 Bear case: hasn't the market had time to digest this?

38:00 Blackbox or no blackbox, and does it matter at $100

40:32 The Crohn's readout and the skew

45:36 M&A: timing, the new CCO, what Adam wants them to do

47:38 Part two safety data due within weeks

54:46 The cash question: secondary vs sale

57:49 Nectar: strong data, then an unexplained selloff

59:54 The Eli Lilly lawsuit and the jury-trial angle

01:03:26 Ox40 read-through and the Q32 Bio overhang

01:06:07 Most mispriced pick, targets, and the CEO's Cincor parallel

01:12:10 Wrap

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Disclosure: Long ABVX and NKTR

Amadeus $AMS is down roughly 25% because the market lumped it in with the SaaS names AI is supposed to gut. Team Amadeus, Pershing Square Challenge finalists, argue it's the opposite: a deterministic, mission-critical monopoly that AI makes more valuable, not less. We dig into the 50-year-old systems that planes literally can't take off without, why the GDS is the wrong job for an LLM, the Sabre and Constellation Software angle, and what the stock is actually worth.

Full pitch deck (~75 pages): https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/5bwef8mz2kplx2sub598w/PSC_AMS_LONG_vSent.pdf?rlkey=x5g0v7t1qk8hpg00ewix95hn3&st=rq9nzl4h&dl=0

This episode is brought to you by Trata. Trata is two investors who get on an anonymized call and talk through the real issues in a stock, bull-to-bull, bear-to-bear, or just getting up to speed. If you like this podcast, you'll like Trata. Check it out at trata.com

Chapters:

00:00 Why Amadeus landed on my radar

01:00 Sponsor: Trata

02:39 Meet Team Amadeus (Pershing Square Challenge finalists)

05:20 What Amadeus actually does: the toll booth on global travel

09:07 The AI fear that broke the stock

11:13 Is it actually cheap? Valuation and stock comp

15:26 Why Amadeus tops the AI-risk matrix

16:32 Air IT Solutions: the SAP of airlines

22:59 The Microsoft AI director who bet against AI eating this

24:15 Tech-debt pushback and the JFK field trip

29:09 Sabre, Constellation Software, and the monopoly complaint

33:16 How Amadeus won share during COVID

34:21 The air-distribution network effect

35:22 Why LLMs are the wrong tool for the GDS

39:50 The $1B biometrics acquisition

43:03 Google, Gemini, and the uptime math

45:47 Fair value and the bull case nobody's pricing

49:01 Amadeus as an AI beneficiary

51:02 Closing thoughts

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

A market that refuses to go down, AI coming for the investor's job, and MicroStrategy quietly becoming the entire preferred-equity market. Andrew's monthly ramble across five things he can't stop thinking about: stretched memory valuations, a hyper-concentrated tape, mental flexibility, and the cycle nobody believes can break.

This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai. Modern financial data for global equities, with a self-serve API that plugs fundamentals and prices straight into your LLM and updates within minutes of earnings, not days. Get 15% off at https://fiscal.ai/yav

Chapters:

00:00 Five things I'm rambling on this month

01:58 Sponsor: Fiscal.ai

03:16 "We'll never have problems again": a market that won't quit

04:56 Energy and oil: the worries the market keeps shrugging off

06:00 AI, space plays, and stretched memory valuations

09:54 Five stocks, half the S&P's gains

10:51 Is AI coming for the investor's job?

13:08 The counterpoint: 200-IQ machines and more fragile markets

16:10 Mental flexibility: why your old letters predicted your AI take

20:04 Why "the cycle is dead" always worries me

21:42 MicroStrategy is the preferred-equity market now

24:45 The CFO signal: leaving a big company for a small one

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Celsius trades at ~20x earnings while growing ~18% a year, cheaper than Monster (~34x) and even Coke (~25x) despite faster growth. The Pershing Square Challenge third-place team makes the long case for $CELH: the market is sleeping on the Alani Nu acquisition, and their 500-person proprietary survey says the brand loyalty is real. Andrew pushes back hard on the Costco/Kirkland private-label threat, the heavy reliance on Pepsi distribution, and whether energy drinks are just the next "protein" fad waiting to be disrupted.

CELH pitch deck: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/rsyotzf7g2efkj9rfmg23/AHHk4_h_6CU12R-dTrAOtH4?rlkey=664lkpggv77rwkzh3rh78826q&e=2&st=0s4tiwjy&dl=0

This episode is sponsored by Trata. Trata is buy-siders interviewing each other; it is the fastest way I know to ramp up on a name. See a sample here: https://www.trata.com/celh

Chapters:

0:00 Why energy drinks (and Celsius) are a passion

1:13 Sponsor: Trata

2:46 Meet team Celsius, third place at the Pershing Square Challenge

4:23 Why they picked Celsius for the pitch

7:19 The setup: ~20x earnings, ~18% growth, an underpriced Alani

8:47 Why the market is discounting Celsius

10:09 The Costco/Kirkland private-label crash, and the rebuttal

12:26 Andrew's pushback: don't loyal buyers just order in bulk?

16:14 The proprietary 500-person survey

18:48 Distribution vs. brand: is the survey actually a bear case?

22:31 The Pepsi relationship: Rockstar, the 11% stake, and the risk

26:08 The Alani acquisition: sugar high or smart capital allocation?

31:24 Are energy drinks the next protein? The fad debate

38:40 Valuation: the Coke and Monster arbitrage

43:38 Wrap-up

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Team Baker Hughes, the second-place finishers in the 2026 Pershing Square Challenge, discuss their Baker Hughes thesis and why they believe the market hasn't fully appreciated the company's evolution from a cyclical oil field services business. They discuss how the long runway for the IET business, and they back their thesis up with 30+ expert calls, a trip to the Western Turbine Users conference, and a sum-of-the-parts case that leans on growth, not multiple expansion.

See the team's full pitch deck here

This episode is sponsored by Trata. Check them out at https://www.trata.com

Chapters

0:00 Intro and sponsor

2:21 Meet Team Baker Hughes

4:39 Why they backed into Baker Hughes

6:56 Watching the stock run from $45 to $65 mid-pitch

7:21 The differentiated work: 30+ expert calls and the turbine conference

8:27 The two businesses: oil field services vs. industrial energy technology

10:10 What the market is missing on the IET transformation

12:56 Is this just another cycle? The chart hit $65 three times

13:59 Why this gas turbine cycle is structurally different

17:01 AI as a distraction: onshoring and electrification

17:51 The installed base flywheel and recurring service revenue

21:13 The three turbine segments and the supply chain squeeze

23:34 Honoring 70-year customers vs. mercenary pricing

27:44 Valuation: a sum-of-the-parts story, not a multiple story

29:36 The Chart acquisition: can they really double their money?

34:56 The GE merger history and the GE Aero Alliance today

38:27 Management, alignment, and insider ownership

42:41 The C3 AI anecdote and wrap-up

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/