Kenya's landmark debt restructuring deal with China, announced last year, converted $3 billion in outstanding China Exim Bank loans from U.S. dollars to Chinese yuan. The currency switch could save the East African country more than $200 million in debt servicing costs.

Not surprisingly, other countries in Asia and Africa are now exploring similar arrangements to reduce their debt burdens. But a new report from the development finance research lab AidData argues that Kenya's savings came mostly from the restructuring terms — not from the yuan conversion itself.

AidData's Oshin Pandey and Sailor Miao join Eric and Cobus to explain how the deal worked, why it matters, and why there is more to this arrangement than most headlines suggest.

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• Kenya's landmark China debt deal
• Debt restructuring vs. yuan conversion
• Why AidData challenges the narrative
• Ethiopia's restructuring prospects
• China's evolving lending strategy
• The future of sovereign debt relief

Show Notes:

• AidData: Kenya's USD-to-RMB Debt Conversion Was Really a Restructuring by Sailor Miao and Oshin Pandey
• The China-Global South Project: Kenya's Chinese Debt Swap Comes With a Hidden Currency Risk

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:

• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
• Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

Two very different narratives about China's economy emerged this week. In France, G7 leaders pushed back against what they see as China's growing dominance in key industries. In Beijing, meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry urged observers to look beyond data showing acute economic weakness.

The reality is that China's economy is so large and complex that both narratives can be true at the same time.

Ker Gibbs, a longtime China-based executive and former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, explores this contradiction in his new book, The Fragile Dragon: Trade, Trump, and China's Vulnerabilities. Ker joins Eric from San Francisco to discuss his decades of experience working in China and what companies in Africa, Asia, and elsewhere need to understand before entering the Chinese market today.

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• China's competing narratives of economic strength and weakness
• Why weak consumer demand remains a major challenge
• The role of exports in sustaining China's growth model
• How Xi Jinping's policies are reshaping the economy
• What foreign companies need to know before entering the China market
• Why China's economic trajectory matters for the Global South

Show Notes:

• Amazon: The Fragile Dragon: Trade, Trump, and China's Vulnerabilities by Ker Gibbs
• The New York Times: China's Spending Slowdown Deepens as Households Tighten Their Belts by Keith Bradsher
• Reuters: G7 Leaders Tackle Reliance on China for Critical Minerals

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:

• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
• Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

Join us on Patreon!
Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Dan Kobayashi spent 16 years working as a U.S. diplomat focused on African issues, both at posts in Lesotho, Zambia, and Malawi, among others, and at the State Department's intelligence bureau in Washington, D.C. He had a close-up view of how U.S.-Africa policy has evolved over the years, particularly as it relates to China's expanding presence on the continent.

Today, Dan is out of government and works as a geopolitical risk consultant in Geneva, where he also writes for his new Expatriach Substack. He joins Eric, Cobus, and Géraud to share an insider's perspective on the current state of U.S. policy towards Africa and why the notion that Washington is competing with Beijing for influence in the region is outdated.

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode

• Inside Washington's Africa policymaking
• Trump's changing approach to Africa
• The China "debt trap" debate
• U.S.-China competition in Africa
• Aid cuts, visas, and diplomacy
• What's next for U.S.-Africa relations?

Show Notes:

• Sign up to The Expatriach Substack
• Expatriarch: USAID Is Unlikely to Be Replaced With Something Better Any Time Soon, So Stop Pretending by Dan Kobayashi
• Expatriarch: My Resignation from the State Department by Dan Kobayashi

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:

• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
• Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

Join us on Patreon!
Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth