Kenya's landmark debt restructuring deal with China, announced last year, converted $3 billion in outstanding China Exim Bank loans from U.S. dollars to Chinese yuan. The currency switch could save the East African country more than $200 million in debt servicing costs.

Not surprisingly, other countries in Asia and Africa are now exploring similar arrangements to reduce their debt burdens. But a new report from the development finance research lab AidData argues that Kenya's savings came mostly from the restructuring terms — not from the yuan conversion itself.

AidData's Oshin Pandey and Sailor Miao join Eric and Cobus to explain how the deal worked, why it matters, and why there is more to this arrangement than most headlines suggest.

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• Kenya's landmark China debt deal
• Debt restructuring vs. yuan conversion
• Why AidData challenges the narrative
• Ethiopia's restructuring prospects
• China's evolving lending strategy
• The future of sovereign debt relief

Show Notes:

• AidData: Kenya's USD-to-RMB Debt Conversion Was Really a Restructuring by Sailor Miao and Oshin Pandey
• The China-Global South Project: Kenya's Chinese Debt Swap Comes With a Hidden Currency Risk

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque

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Two very different narratives about China's economy emerged this week. In France, G7 leaders pushed back against what they see as China's growing dominance in key industries. In Beijing, meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry urged observers to look beyond data showing acute economic weakness.

The reality is that China's economy is so large and complex that both narratives can be true at the same time.

Ker Gibbs, a longtime China-based executive and former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, explores this contradiction in his new book, The Fragile Dragon: Trade, Trump, and China's Vulnerabilities. Ker joins Eric from San Francisco to discuss his decades of experience working in China and what companies in Africa, Asia, and elsewhere need to understand before entering the Chinese market today.

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• China's competing narratives of economic strength and weakness
• Why weak consumer demand remains a major challenge
• The role of exports in sustaining China's growth model
• How Xi Jinping's policies are reshaping the economy
• What foreign companies need to know before entering the China market
• Why China's economic trajectory matters for the Global South

Show Notes:

• Amazon: The Fragile Dragon: Trade, Trump, and China's Vulnerabilities by Ker Gibbs
• The New York Times: China's Spending Slowdown Deepens as Households Tighten Their Belts by Keith Bradsher
• Reuters: G7 Leaders Tackle Reliance on China for Critical Minerals

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:

• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
• Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

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Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Dan Kobayashi spent 16 years working as a U.S. diplomat focused on African issues, both at posts in Lesotho, Zambia, and Malawi, among others, and at the State Department's intelligence bureau in Washington, D.C. He had a close-up view of how U.S.-Africa policy has evolved over the years, particularly as it relates to China's expanding presence on the continent.

Today, Dan is out of government and works as a geopolitical risk consultant in Geneva, where he also writes for his new Expatriach Substack. He joins Eric, Cobus, and Géraud to share an insider's perspective on the current state of U.S. policy towards Africa and why the notion that Washington is competing with Beijing for influence in the region is outdated.

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode

• Inside Washington's Africa policymaking
• Trump's changing approach to Africa
• The China "debt trap" debate
• U.S.-China competition in Africa
• Aid cuts, visas, and diplomacy
• What's next for U.S.-Africa relations?

Show Notes:

• Sign up to The Expatriach Substack
• Expatriarch: USAID Is Unlikely to Be Replaced With Something Better Any Time Soon, So Stop Pretending by Dan Kobayashi
• Expatriarch: My Resignation from the State Department by Dan Kobayashi

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:

• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
• Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

Join us on Patreon!
Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

On March 1, one day after the U.S. and Israel launched what would become the ongoing war with Iran, Ren Hanjun, a visiting professor at Peking University, posted a video on WeChat predicting that China would emerge as one of the conflict's biggest beneficiaries.

Three months later, that prediction appears increasingly accurate. Demand for Chinese EVs, solar panels, and other clean energy technologies is surging, especially across developing regions such as Southeast Asia and Africa.

Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a CGSP non-resident fellow, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss how disruptions to global oil and gas supplies are accelerating the shift toward Chinese renewable energy and mobility solutions.

• China's potential gains from the Iran war
• Energy insecurity and the global transition shift
• Rising demand for Chinese EVs and solar tech
• Southeast Asia and Africa's growing role
• The geopolitics of clean energy supply chains
• Is China the biggest winner of the crisis?

Show Notes:

• The China-Global South Project: "Win or Lose, America Loses": Chinese Analyst Says Trump's Iran Gamble Will Hand Beijing a Strategic Victory
• The China-Global South Project: Why the Global South Will Become New Champions of Climate Action by Li Shuo
• The China-Global South Project: Leading from the "Global Middle": China's Bid to Host the New Ocean Treaty by Li Shuo

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:

• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
• Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

Join us on Patreon!
Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China is facing serious headwinds across much of Latin America as the United States ramps up pressure to curb Beijing's engagement in the region. The Chinese have encountered major setbacks in Panama, Mexico, Chile, and potentially in Honduras, where the new government is actively considering switching diplomatic ties back to Taiwan.

But that is not the case in Brazil. Chinese businesses are investing record amounts in South America's largest economy and buying up more of the country's vast reserves of natural resources, including oil, soybeans, and critical minerals.

Tulio Cariello, research and content director at the China-Brazil Business Council, joins Eric from Rio de Janeiro to discuss his latest report on Chinese investment trends in Brazil and explains why the country is now the top destination in the world for Chinese FDI.

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode

• Why Brazil became China's top investment destination
• BYD, EVs, and China's growing auto dominance
• Chinese investments in Brazil's energy and mining sectors
• How U.S.-China tensions are reshaping Latin America
• Brazil's role in China's Global South strategy
• The future of China-Brazil trade and industrial ties

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:

• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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Join us on Patreon!
Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

One of the most common talking points among policymakers and analysts in Washington is the belief that China aims to replace the United States as the world's dominant power. Variations of that narrative are also widely shared in many European capitals.

There is little doubt that China is asserting itself more forcefully in global affairs, especially amid a new era of Great Power competition. But senior officials in Beijing have also made clear that they have little interest in taking on the full responsibilities and obligations that come with traditional global leadership.

In a recent Foreign Policy article, Jeremy Friedman, an associate professor at Harvard Business School, explored the limits and ambitions of China's expanding international power. He joins Eric to discuss what China wants… and what it does not want from a changing global order.

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode

• China's global ambitions
• The future of U.S. power
• Why Beijing rejects hegemony
• Taiwan and regional security
• Trade, tech, and critical minerals
• The emerging world order

Show Notes:

• Foreign Policy: How Far Do China's Ambitions Reach? by Jeremy Friedman
• East Asia Forum: China's ambitions are narrower than Washington thinks by David Kang, Jackie Wong & Zenobia Chan

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:

• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing this week hoping China could help contain the escalating U.S.-Iran crisis, but the summit underscored how limited Beijing's influence over Tehran actually is.

In Washington, many policymakers assume China can pressure Iran because it buys the vast majority of Iranian oil. But the reality is far more complicated, and there is little evidence the Iranian leadership would make major national security concessions at Beijing's request.

William Figueroa, a leading Iran-China scholar at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, joins Eric to unpack what U.S. officials misunderstand about China's relationship with Iran, why Beijing is reluctant to use its economic leverage aggressively, and how China itself is vulnerable to the broader economic fallout from the war.

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode

• Why Trump wanted China's help on Iran
• The limits of China's leverage over Tehran
• How Iran views Beijing and Washington differently
• Why oil is only part of China's concern
• The economic risks of a prolonged war
• What the Trump-Xi summit revealed about global power dynamics

Show Notes:

• The China-Global South Project: China and the Iran War: The Logic and Limitations of China's Middle East Diplomacy by William Figuerora
• The China-Global South Project: Through Allegory, China Uses AI to Shape Its Narrative of the Iran Conflict by William Figuerora
• The China-Global South Project: Social Media Commentators Are Misreading the China Angle in the U.S.–Israeli War With Iran by William Figuerora

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:

• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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Join us on Patreon!
Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth