『The National Debt Podcast with Fexingo: Treasury, Borrowing, and Long-Term Fiscal Outlook』のカバーアート

The National Debt Podcast with Fexingo: Treasury, Borrowing, and Long-Term Fiscal Outlook

The National Debt Podcast with Fexingo: Treasury, Borrowing, and Long-Term Fiscal Outlook

著者： Fexingo
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Lucas and Luna examine the mechanics of national debt, Treasury issuance, and long-term fiscal sustainability through the lens of current market data and historical precedent. Each episode starts from a fresh figure — a yield curve inversion, a CBO long-term projection, an auction bid-to-cover ratio — and follows the chain of cause and effect: what that number means for government borrowing costs, for private investment, for the dollar's reserve status, and for the trade-offs policymakers face between growth and solvency. The conversations move from a specific data point into the institutional structures that govern federal finance: the role of the primary dealer system, the strategic importance of the foreign holder base, the interaction between Fed rate decisions and debt servicing costs, and the political economy of deficit politics. Lucas brings the journalistic discipline of calling a trend by its real-world name — 'that's not an infrastructure investment, it's a transfer payment dressed in hard hats' — while Luna tests assumptions with practical questions: 'If the term premium is rising because of supply saturation, at what point does the auction fail, and what happens then?' The listener is treated as someone who already understands compound interest, present value, and basic macro, and wants to know how the machinery actually works. No party allegiances, no policy cheerleading — just the arithmetic of a nation's balance sheet and the implications for asset prices, inflation, and the next generation's tax burden. Can a country with a debt-to-GDP ratio above 100% still borrow at 4% without crowding out private investment, and where is the actual limit? #NationalDebt #TreasuryMarket #FederalReserve #FiscalPolicy #LongTermOutlook #Deficit #YieldCurve #DebtToGDP #BondMarket #PrimaryDealers #AuctionMechanics #DOLLAR #Inflation #CentralBanking #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FiscalSustainability Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo© 2026 Fexingo. All rights reserved. 経済学
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  • Why the Yield Curve Inversion Is Persisting Despite Fed Cuts

    Why the Yield Curve Inversion Is Persisting Despite Fed Cuts
    2026/06/08
    The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — one of the longest stretches on record — and it's not behaving like past cycles. Lucas and Luna dig into why the 2-year yield is still above the 10-year even as the Fed has cut rates, what that says about the bond market's view of fiscal policy, and why this persistent inversion might be a bigger warning sign than the steepeners that usually precede a recession. They anchor the conversation in the latest data: the 10-2 spread at 38 basis points as of June 5, the 3-month yield at 3.78 percent, and the federal debt-to-GDP ratio hitting 122.6 percent. Along the way they discuss what the Treasury's borrowing patterns — heavily weighted toward short-dated bills — tell us about the government's own view of long-term risk, and why the traditional recession signal may have changed for good. #YieldCurve #FiscalPolicy #TreasuryBorrowing #NationalDebt #FederalReserve #RecessionSignal #BondMarket #InterestRates #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #DebtToGDP #InvertedCurve #LongTermRates #ShortTermDebt #FiscalDominance #TreasuryAuctions Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • Why Treasury Borrowing Is Stuck at the Short End

    Why Treasury Borrowing Is Stuck at the Short End
    2026/06/07
    Episode 37 of The National Debt Podcast looks at a growing anomaly in government borrowing: Treasury is issuing more short-term bills than long-term bonds, even as the debt crosses 38.5 trillion dollars. Lucas and Luna examine why the 3-month yield at 3.62 percent is cheaper than 30-year bonds at nearly 5 percent, what that means for refinancing risk, and how the Federal Reserve's interest on reserve balances rate is trapping the yield curve in an inverted shape. Drawing on current data from June 2026, they explore the structural shift in Treasury's funding strategy and the quiet fiscal danger of borrowing short in a world of high deficits. No clickbait, just the numbers and what they signal about the government's approach to managing 38.5 trillion in debt. #TreasuryBorrowing #NationalDebt #FiscalPolicy #YieldCurve #ShortTermBills #FederalReserve #InterestRates #IOER #DebtManagement #RefinancingRisk #TreasuryAuctions #38Trillion #GovernmentDebt #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #NationalDebtPodcast #FiscalOutlook Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    10 分
  • How the 10-2 Yield Spread Signals Rising Fiscal Risk

    How the 10-2 Yield Spread Signals Rising Fiscal Risk
    2026/06/07
    In this episode, Lucas and Luna drill into a single number that tells a big story: the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread is now 38 basis points. That sounds small, but it's a sign that markets are pricing in a long-term debt burden that short-term rate cuts can't fix. Lucas walks through the math: why a flat or rising spread during a rate-cutting cycle is unusual, what it means for the Treasury's borrowing costs, and how the 122.6 percent debt-to-GDP ratio changes the calculus. Luna pushes back with a question about whether this is just a 'term premium' story or something deeper. They compare today to past episodes of fiscal dominance, from the 1980s to the post-2008 era, and ask whether the bond market is finally forcing a choice between growth and solvency. #YieldSpread #TreasuryYields #NationalDebt #FiscalRisk #BondMarket #DebtToGDP #FederalReserve #InterestRates #TermPremium #Economics #FiscalDominance #TenYearYield #TwoYearYield #LucasAndLuna #FexingoEconomics #BusinessPodcast #MacroEconomics #USDebt Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
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