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  • Why the Yield Curve Inversion Is Persisting Despite Fed Cuts

    Why the Yield Curve Inversion Is Persisting Despite Fed Cuts
    2026/06/08
    The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — one of the longest stretches on record — and it's not behaving like past cycles. Lucas and Luna dig into why the 2-year yield is still above the 10-year even as the Fed has cut rates, what that says about the bond market's view of fiscal policy, and why this persistent inversion might be a bigger warning sign than the steepeners that usually precede a recession. They anchor the conversation in the latest data: the 10-2 spread at 38 basis points as of June 5, the 3-month yield at 3.78 percent, and the federal debt-to-GDP ratio hitting 122.6 percent. Along the way they discuss what the Treasury's borrowing patterns — heavily weighted toward short-dated bills — tell us about the government's own view of long-term risk, and why the traditional recession signal may have changed for good. #YieldCurve #FiscalPolicy #TreasuryBorrowing #NationalDebt #FederalReserve #RecessionSignal #BondMarket #InterestRates #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #DebtToGDP #InvertedCurve #LongTermRates #ShortTermDebt #FiscalDominance #TreasuryAuctions Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • Why Treasury Borrowing Is Stuck at the Short End

    Why Treasury Borrowing Is Stuck at the Short End
    2026/06/07
    Episode 37 of The National Debt Podcast looks at a growing anomaly in government borrowing: Treasury is issuing more short-term bills than long-term bonds, even as the debt crosses 38.5 trillion dollars. Lucas and Luna examine why the 3-month yield at 3.62 percent is cheaper than 30-year bonds at nearly 5 percent, what that means for refinancing risk, and how the Federal Reserve's interest on reserve balances rate is trapping the yield curve in an inverted shape. Drawing on current data from June 2026, they explore the structural shift in Treasury's funding strategy and the quiet fiscal danger of borrowing short in a world of high deficits. No clickbait, just the numbers and what they signal about the government's approach to managing 38.5 trillion in debt. #TreasuryBorrowing #NationalDebt #FiscalPolicy #YieldCurve #ShortTermBills #FederalReserve #InterestRates #IOER #DebtManagement #RefinancingRisk #TreasuryAuctions #38Trillion #GovernmentDebt #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #NationalDebtPodcast #FiscalOutlook Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    10 分
  • How the 10-2 Yield Spread Signals Rising Fiscal Risk

    How the 10-2 Yield Spread Signals Rising Fiscal Risk
    2026/06/07
    In this episode, Lucas and Luna drill into a single number that tells a big story: the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread is now 38 basis points. That sounds small, but it's a sign that markets are pricing in a long-term debt burden that short-term rate cuts can't fix. Lucas walks through the math: why a flat or rising spread during a rate-cutting cycle is unusual, what it means for the Treasury's borrowing costs, and how the 122.6 percent debt-to-GDP ratio changes the calculus. Luna pushes back with a question about whether this is just a 'term premium' story or something deeper. They compare today to past episodes of fiscal dominance, from the 1980s to the post-2008 era, and ask whether the bond market is finally forcing a choice between growth and solvency. #YieldSpread #TreasuryYields #NationalDebt #FiscalRisk #BondMarket #DebtToGDP #FederalReserve #InterestRates #TermPremium #Economics #FiscalDominance #TenYearYield #TwoYearYield #LucasAndLuna #FexingoEconomics #BusinessPodcast #MacroEconomics #USDebt Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
  • Why Long-Term Unemployment Is Raising the National Debt

    Why Long-Term Unemployment Is Raising the National Debt
    2026/06/06
    In Episode 35 of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna drill into a hidden fiscal accelerant: long-term unemployment. With the May jobs report due Friday and the Federal debt hitting 38.5 trillion, they break down how workers out of work for six months or more drive up safety-net spending and depress tax receipts for years. They connect new ADP payroll data (122,000 private-sector jobs in May) with the stubborn rise in long-term joblessness, and explain why the CBO scores a long-term unemployed worker as a net fiscal drag of roughly $40,000 per year. Lucas points to the 30-year Treasury yield at 5% as the market's quiet vote that the labor-market scarring is a permanent cost, not a cyclical blip. Luna contrasts the current labor-force participation rate with pre-pandemic levels. A grounded, numbers-driven conversation about why the debt clock keeps ticking faster than headline job figures suggest. #NationalDebt #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarketScarring #FiscalPolicy #TreasuryBorrowing #FederalDeficit #JobsReport #ADPPayrolls #30YearYield #DebtToGDP #BudgetConcern #MayJobs #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #HiddenCosts #StructuralUnemployment #FiscalDrag Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • Why Treasury Is Stuck Borrowing at the Front of the Curve

    Why Treasury Is Stuck Borrowing at the Front of the Curve
    2026/06/06
    The U.S. Treasury now issues more short-term debt than at any point since the financial crisis. Lucas and Luna explain why the government is effectively borrowing on a credit card — issuing bills with maturities under one year to fund long-term spending. They break down the mechanics: the Treasury's cash management problem, the role of the debt ceiling, and what happens when 3-month yields stay above 3.6 percent while the 30-year sits at 5 percent. Using June 2026 data, they show how the ratio of bills to total marketable debt has climbed past 22 percent, and why that creates rollover risk for every new auction. This episode connects the yield curve's front-end dynamics to a deeper question: how long can the fiscal system run on short-term funding before the market demands a premium? #TreasuryBorrowing #ShortTermDebt #NationalDebt #YieldCurve #TBill #3MonthYield #FiscalPolicy #DebtManagement #TreasuryAuctions #BondMarket #FederalDebt #Economics #MacroEconomics #FiscalOutlook #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsPodcast #LucasAndLuna Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
  • How the 3-Month Yield Is Breaking the Curve

    How the 3-Month Yield Is Breaking the Curve
    2026/06/05
    Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzling signal in the Treasury market: the 3-month bill yield is holding near 3.78 percent while the 10-year sits at 4.49. That narrow 71-basis-point gap is historically abnormal and suggests the market is pricing in a very different rate path than the Fed's current stance. They walk through what the short end is saying about recession risk, the Fed's next moves, and how this twist connects to the broader fiscal outlook as the national debt crosses 38.5 trillion dollars. A focused look at one overlooked yield-curve corner that might be telling us more than the 10-2 spread. #TreasuryYields #ThreeMonthBills #YieldCurve #FedPolicy #ShortEnd #NationalDebt #BondMarket #RecessionSignal #InterestRates #FiscalPolicy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #DebtPodcast #MonetaryPolicy #FedFundsRate #Inversion Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    11 分
  • Why Long-Term Unemployment Is a Hidden Fiscal Time Bomb

    Why Long-Term Unemployment Is a Hidden Fiscal Time Bomb
    2026/06/05
    This week on The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna connect two seemingly separate dots: the rising long-term unemployment rate and the accelerating national debt. With federal debt at 38.5 trillion dollars and the 30-year Treasury yield hovering near 5 percent, they explain why workers who are out of a job for more than six months aren't just a labor-market problem — they're a structural fiscal problem. Lucas breaks down the math: how long-term joblessness reduces tax revenue, forces higher spending on unemployment insurance and food assistance, and ultimately widens the deficit. Luna points to the human cost — lost skills, reduced lifetime earnings, and the hidden drag on GDP. Using data from the May jobs preview and the latest Treasury yields, they argue that if long-term unemployment is surging even as headline job growth looks decent, the bond market is going to notice. The episode closes on the question no policymaker wants to answer: can we afford to ignore the long-term unemployed when the debt-to-GDP ratio is already at 122 percent? #LongTermUnemployment #NationalDebt #FederalDeficit #TreasuryYields #FiscalPolicy #EconomicRecovery #LaborMarket #BondMarket #DebtToGDP #30YearYield #JoblessRecovery #StructuralUnemployment #GovernmentSpending #TaxRevenue #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #NationalDebtPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • Why the Fed Rate Is Not Controlling Long-Term Borrowing Costs

    Why the Fed Rate Is Not Controlling Long-Term Borrowing Costs
    2026/06/04
    Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that flummoxes the bond market: the Fed has cut short-term rates to 3.63 percent, but the 30-year Treasury yield sits stubbornly at 4.98 percent. They walk through the data—the 10-year at 4.46, the 2-year at 4.05—and explain why fiscal deficits, term premium, and foreign demand are overriding the central bank's signals. With the national debt at 38.5 trillion and debt-to-GDP at 122.6 percent, the conversation reveals how Washington's borrowing appetite is rewriting the rules of monetary policy transmission. A fresh angle for anyone wondering why mortgage rates and corporate bonds aren't following the Fed's lead. #FederalReserve #TreasuryYields #NationalDebt #TermPremium #FiscalDominance #BondMarket #MonetaryPolicy #FiscalPolicy #LongTermRates #YieldCurve #DebtToGDP #CentralBanking #InterestRates #Macroeconomics #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheNationalDebtPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分