Trump gave his longest speech since the State of the Union at a press conference in Paris, then flew to the Palace of Versailles to sign the Iran memorandum of understanding.

For those keeping score at home: Versailles is where Germany signed its humiliating defeat at the end of World War I, the document widely credited with planting the seeds of World War II.

The White House finally released the 14-section MOU. Grant goes through what's actually in it versus what JD Vance has been claiming on his wall-to-wall media tour. The short version: Iran keeps its enriched uranium stockpile, the Strait of Hormuz will now be jointly controlled by Iran and Oman (charging fees for access that used to be free), and the $300 billion reconstruction fund is in the document despite Trump calling it "entirely false."

At $187 billion spent to reach this agreement, the deal is 144 times more expensive than the Obama Iran deal Trump ripped up in 2018, which cost $1.3 billion and achieved many of the same things.

Then there's JD Vance, who has been the lead negotiator, the lead spokesperson, and is now being set up as the lead fall guy. If the deal collapses in the next 60 days, it's Vance who takes the blame. If it succeeds, Trump takes the glory. Grant breaks down why Trump privately mocks Vance, pits him against Rubio, and can't stand the idea of a successor, including how he felt about his own son.

CHAPTERS:

0:00 JD Vance's very bad week and the soft launch of his 2028 campaign

1:30 Sponsor: SaySo News

2:45 Trump's Paris speech: longest time on camera in months, and he struggled to finish it

5:00 Why signing the MOU at the Palace of Versailles is a massive historical red flag

6:30 What's actually in the 14-section MOU: blockade, forces, and de-mining 5,000 underwater mines

8:00 Iran and Oman get joint control of the Strait — and the right to charge fees for access that used to be free

9:30 The money: oil sanctions lifted immediately, assets unfrozen, and the $300 billion that Trump says isn't real but is in the document

11:30 John Bolton's warning: how other countries are reading this agreement between the lines

13:00 144 times more expensive than Obama's deal: the full cost breakdown

14:30 The nuclear question: Iran keeps its uranium, inspectors return, and Trump's new position

16:30 JD Vance's media blitz: every network, The View, the NYT, and a new book about his conversion to Catholicism

18:00 Trump undercuts Vance on stage in Paris with the world watching

19:30 Trump privately mocks Vance, polls his allies on Vance vs. Rubio, and calls him "cloying and weird"

21:00 Why Trump can't tolerate a successor: Don Jr., MAGA, and the legacy obsession explained

23:00 If the deal works, Trump gets the glory. If it fails, Vance gets the wolves.

MAKE IT MAKE SENSE SUBSTACK: The Price Of Peace

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Over the weekend, on Trump's birthday, the US and Iran announced they'd reached a deal to end the war. The actual text has not been released. What we know so far is that this is a memorandum of understanding, not a signed treaty, and by no measure does any foreign policy expert consider that a real deal yet.

The Strait of Hormuz, which 20% of the world's oil flows through, did not reopen immediately as promised. As of recording, only two ships have passed through and the US blockade remains. Iran would gain joint control over the strait with Oman, which intelligence officials are calling a bigger threat than a nuclear weapon, since it gives Iran an on off switch over global oil.

There's no agreement on Iran's uranium stockpile, the centerpiece issue Trump has built his entire Iran policy around. Today in Switzerland, Trump suddenly started downplaying how much that uranium actually matters. His own Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, and CIA Director all told him in private meetings they don't think Iran is being fully truthful.

Grant also breaks down the $24 billion in unfrozen assets, the $200 billion total cost of this war to Americans, why this could trigger the Senate's treaty approval process, and why Lindsey Graham just threw JD Vance under the bus on Twitter.

Subscribe on Substack, Friday's interview with NYU law professor Melissa Murray on her new book about the Constitution drops this week.

CHAPTERS:

0:00 After 40 broken promises, is the Iran war actually over this time?

1:30 Sponsor: SaySo News

2:55 Trump's Saturday Truth Social post and an explicit threat to use nuclear weapons

4:20 Sunday's announcement: why this is a memorandum of understanding, not a real deal

5:40 The Strait of Hormuz still isn't open. Only two ships have passed through.

7:00 Iran and Oman would jointly control the Strait. Why intelligence officials call this worse than a nuke.

9:00 $24 billion unfrozen, $300 billion in possible reconstruction money, and JD Vance's PR problem

11:00 The real cost: $200 billion spent by Americans on a war Congress never approved

13:00 The nuclear question still isn't resolved, and today Trump started downplaying it

15:00 Rubio, Hegseth, and Ratcliffe all told Trump in private they don't trust Iran on this

16:30 Why Trump won't release the actual text of the agreement

18:00 Hurdle one: Israel, Lebanon, and Netanyahu's promise to stay no matter what

20:00 Hurdle two: the Senate's treaty approval clause and Lindsey Graham throwing JD Vance under the bus

22:30 Hurdle three: 60 days is a long time, and what could still go wrong before this is signed

MAKE IT MAKE SENSE SUBSTACK

PROMO CODE:

This episode is sponsored by SaySo. SaySo is a brand new news app built for people who actually want to be informed, not just kept scrolling. No outrage-chasing algorithm, no AI slop, just vetted creators delivering fact-driven coverage you can get through in a few minutes a day. I'm one of the early creators on the platform, posting there alongside others I trust. Check it out and download SaySo

Support the show

Follow along on social media

SaySo: @GrantHermes
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Barb McQuade spent her career as a US Attorney prosecuting organized crime, including the conviction of former Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick on extortion, bribery, and fraud charges. Trump later pardoned Kilpatrick. In her new book, The Fix, she argues the Trump administration is running the exact same playbook she spent her career prosecuting. Her words: "it's just crime."

Grant and Barb walk through the parallels in detail. The kickback scheme that sent Kilpatrick's associates to prison looks a lot like the DOJ's immunity deal and slush fund. The pattern of inflicting pain until someone complies, then owning them permanently, is the same pattern Barb saw with extortion victims in Detroit and the same pattern she sees in how Trump dismissed the bribery case against Eric Adams in exchange for cooperation on immigration enforcement.

But this isn't just a conversation about the problem. Barb has actual proposals: moving the US Marshal Service under the judicial branch so courts can enforce their own contempt orders, ranked choice voting to reduce the power of extremists in both parties, independent redistricting commissions like Michigan's, and term limits for Supreme Court justices that would prevent any single president from reshaping the court for a generation.

0:00 An optimistic episode, finally: meet Barb McQuade, author of The Fix

3:11 Why Barb calls this a "mob-style government" instead of authoritarianism

6:39 "It's just crime": why this framing matters and how Peter Magyar used it to defeat Orban

7:30 The Kwame Kilpatrick case: kickbacks, extortion, and the contractor who couldn't say no

11:04 The Eric Adams parallel: dismissing a bribery case in exchange for loyalty

12:17 Win by losing: how Trump flexes power even when courts block him

14:00 The real fix: bolstering Congress as the check the founders intended

17:00 Ranked choice voting and how Alaska elected Lisa Murkowski's independence

19:30 Ending gerrymandering: Michigan's independent redistricting commission as the model

21:30 Getting money out of politics: Michigan's utility contribution ballot measure

25:12 Should Democrats expand the Supreme Court? Barb's answer: term limits instead

28:51 A radical idea: moving the US Marshal Service under the judicial branch

31:52 Does this collapse from the inside, or is Trump too big to fail?

34:07 Where to find Barb's book and her podcast, Sisters in Law

The Fix: Saving America from the Corruption of a Mob-Style Government

Make It Make Sense Substack

This episode is sponsored by Cozy Earth. Summer nights and a chaotic news cycle are a rough combo — at least your sheets shouldn't make it worse. Cozy Earth's bamboo sheets and brushed bamboo pajamas are temperature-regulating, insanely soft, and built for actually sleeping cool. Use code MIMS25 at CozyEarth.com for 30% off — and when you do, you're also supporting the show.

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