Trump gave his longest speech since the State of the Union at a press conference in Paris, then flew to the Palace of Versailles to sign the Iran memorandum of understanding.

For those keeping score at home: Versailles is where Germany signed its humiliating defeat at the end of World War I, the document widely credited with planting the seeds of World War II.

The White House finally released the 14-section MOU. Grant goes through what's actually in it versus what JD Vance has been claiming on his wall-to-wall media tour. The short version: Iran keeps its enriched uranium stockpile, the Strait of Hormuz will now be jointly controlled by Iran and Oman (charging fees for access that used to be free), and the $300 billion reconstruction fund is in the document despite Trump calling it "entirely false."

At $187 billion spent to reach this agreement, the deal is 144 times more expensive than the Obama Iran deal Trump ripped up in 2018, which cost $1.3 billion and achieved many of the same things.

Then there's JD Vance, who has been the lead negotiator, the lead spokesperson, and is now being set up as the lead fall guy. If the deal collapses in the next 60 days, it's Vance who takes the blame. If it succeeds, Trump takes the glory. Grant breaks down why Trump privately mocks Vance, pits him against Rubio, and can't stand the idea of a successor, including how he felt about his own son.

CHAPTERS:

0:00 JD Vance's very bad week and the soft launch of his 2028 campaign

1:30 Sponsor: SaySo News

2:45 Trump's Paris speech: longest time on camera in months, and he struggled to finish it

5:00 Why signing the MOU at the Palace of Versailles is a massive historical red flag

6:30 What's actually in the 14-section MOU: blockade, forces, and de-mining 5,000 underwater mines

8:00 Iran and Oman get joint control of the Strait — and the right to charge fees for access that used to be free

9:30 The money: oil sanctions lifted immediately, assets unfrozen, and the $300 billion that Trump says isn't real but is in the document

11:30 John Bolton's warning: how other countries are reading this agreement between the lines

13:00 144 times more expensive than Obama's deal: the full cost breakdown

14:30 The nuclear question: Iran keeps its uranium, inspectors return, and Trump's new position

16:30 JD Vance's media blitz: every network, The View, the NYT, and a new book about his conversion to Catholicism

18:00 Trump undercuts Vance on stage in Paris with the world watching

19:30 Trump privately mocks Vance, polls his allies on Vance vs. Rubio, and calls him "cloying and weird"

21:00 Why Trump can't tolerate a successor: Don Jr., MAGA, and the legacy obsession explained

23:00 If the deal works, Trump gets the glory. If it fails, Vance gets the wolves.

MAKE IT MAKE SENSE SUBSTACK: The Price Of Peace

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Over the weekend, on Trump's birthday, the US and Iran announced they'd reached a deal to end the war. The actual text has not been released. What we know so far is that this is a memorandum of understanding, not a signed treaty, and by no measure does any foreign policy expert consider that a real deal yet.

The Strait of Hormuz, which 20% of the world's oil flows through, did not reopen immediately as promised. As of recording, only two ships have passed through and the US blockade remains. Iran would gain joint control over the strait with Oman, which intelligence officials are calling a bigger threat than a nuclear weapon, since it gives Iran an on off switch over global oil.

There's no agreement on Iran's uranium stockpile, the centerpiece issue Trump has built his entire Iran policy around. Today in Switzerland, Trump suddenly started downplaying how much that uranium actually matters. His own Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, and CIA Director all told him in private meetings they don't think Iran is being fully truthful.

Grant also breaks down the $24 billion in unfrozen assets, the $200 billion total cost of this war to Americans, why this could trigger the Senate's treaty approval process, and why Lindsey Graham just threw JD Vance under the bus on Twitter.

Subscribe on Substack, Friday's interview with NYU law professor Melissa Murray on her new book about the Constitution drops this week.

CHAPTERS:

0:00 After 40 broken promises, is the Iran war actually over this time?

1:30 Sponsor: SaySo News

2:55 Trump's Saturday Truth Social post and an explicit threat to use nuclear weapons

4:20 Sunday's announcement: why this is a memorandum of understanding, not a real deal

5:40 The Strait of Hormuz still isn't open. Only two ships have passed through.

7:00 Iran and Oman would jointly control the Strait. Why intelligence officials call this worse than a nuke.

9:00 $24 billion unfrozen, $300 billion in possible reconstruction money, and JD Vance's PR problem

11:00 The real cost: $200 billion spent by Americans on a war Congress never approved

13:00 The nuclear question still isn't resolved, and today Trump started downplaying it

15:00 Rubio, Hegseth, and Ratcliffe all told Trump in private they don't trust Iran on this

16:30 Why Trump won't release the actual text of the agreement

18:00 Hurdle one: Israel, Lebanon, and Netanyahu's promise to stay no matter what

20:00 Hurdle two: the Senate's treaty approval clause and Lindsey Graham throwing JD Vance under the bus

22:30 Hurdle three: 60 days is a long time, and what could still go wrong before this is signed

MAKE IT MAKE SENSE SUBSTACK

PROMO CODE:

This episode is sponsored by SaySo. SaySo is a brand new news app built for people who actually want to be informed, not just kept scrolling. No outrage-chasing algorithm, no AI slop, just vetted creators delivering fact-driven coverage you can get through in a few minutes a day. I'm one of the early creators on the platform, posting there alongside others I trust. Check it out and download SaySo

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Barb McQuade spent her career as a US Attorney prosecuting organized crime, including the conviction of former Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick on extortion, bribery, and fraud charges. Trump later pardoned Kilpatrick. In her new book, The Fix, she argues the Trump administration is running the exact same playbook she spent her career prosecuting. Her words: "it's just crime."

Grant and Barb walk through the parallels in detail. The kickback scheme that sent Kilpatrick's associates to prison looks a lot like the DOJ's immunity deal and slush fund. The pattern of inflicting pain until someone complies, then owning them permanently, is the same pattern Barb saw with extortion victims in Detroit and the same pattern she sees in how Trump dismissed the bribery case against Eric Adams in exchange for cooperation on immigration enforcement.

But this isn't just a conversation about the problem. Barb has actual proposals: moving the US Marshal Service under the judicial branch so courts can enforce their own contempt orders, ranked choice voting to reduce the power of extremists in both parties, independent redistricting commissions like Michigan's, and term limits for Supreme Court justices that would prevent any single president from reshaping the court for a generation.

0:00 An optimistic episode, finally: meet Barb McQuade, author of The Fix

3:11 Why Barb calls this a "mob-style government" instead of authoritarianism

6:39 "It's just crime": why this framing matters and how Peter Magyar used it to defeat Orban

7:30 The Kwame Kilpatrick case: kickbacks, extortion, and the contractor who couldn't say no

11:04 The Eric Adams parallel: dismissing a bribery case in exchange for loyalty

12:17 Win by losing: how Trump flexes power even when courts block him

14:00 The real fix: bolstering Congress as the check the founders intended

17:00 Ranked choice voting and how Alaska elected Lisa Murkowski's independence

19:30 Ending gerrymandering: Michigan's independent redistricting commission as the model

21:30 Getting money out of politics: Michigan's utility contribution ballot measure

25:12 Should Democrats expand the Supreme Court? Barb's answer: term limits instead

28:51 A radical idea: moving the US Marshal Service under the judicial branch

31:52 Does this collapse from the inside, or is Trump too big to fail?

34:07 Where to find Barb's book and her podcast, Sisters in Law

The Fix: Saving America from the Corruption of a Mob-Style Government

Make It Make Sense Substack

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103 days into a war Donald Trump promised would never happen, the United States is striking targets inside Iran and along the Iranian coast for the third straight day. The Secretary of Defense announced the US would target bridges and power plants. Legal scholars say those strikes are unconstitutional. International law experts say targeting civilian infrastructure is a war crime.

This morning, Trump announced the US would be taking Kharg Island, Iran's most important oil hub. Senator Patty Murray called it a quagmire. Iran's lead negotiator called it a quagmire. Military and constitutional scholars called the strikes illegal. Six hours later, Trump posted on Truth Social that the strikes were cancelled and a peace deal was done.

Iran was not on the list of countries that approved the deal. Iran has not commented. This is the 39th time Trump has announced a peace deal is ready to be signed.

Grant also breaks down why 265 ships are still stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, what it means that the US has drawn down its own oil reserves to historic lows, and what Mike Johnson said when asked whether Congress should authorize the war — and then ran away from the cameras.

CHAPTERS:

0:00 The US is back at war with Iran. Three days of strikes. Here's what changed.

1:30 Sponsor: Cozy Earth

3:00 The helicopter Iran shot down, the rescue, and the US airstrike response

4:15 Why these strikes are unconstitutional: no Congressional authorization, no War Powers justification

5:30 Mike Johnson asked if Congress should authorize the war. He ran away from the cameras.

6:45 Senator Ron Johnson: Congress can't be trusted to know about its own wars

8:00 Targeting power plants and bridges: why Hegseth's "on our terms" is an admission of war crimes

9:30 The covert oil mission: 100 million barrels through the Strait, 265 ships still stranded

11:00 Trump says "I love inflation." The White House spin vs. what oil executives are actually telling the administration.

12:30 Kharg Island explained: why taking it means boots on the ground and a full-scale ground war

14:00 55% of Americans oppose any invasion. Support for the war is now at minus 20.

15:15 Six hours later: the invasion is off. Peace deal number 39 is announced. Iran wasn't consulted.

16:45 103 days of a war Trump promised would never happen. No end in sight.

PROMO CODES

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California held its primary last week. Six days later, votes were still being counted. That's normal. But Trump, Elon Musk, and Mike Johnson decided it was evidence of massive fraud, with zero evidence, which they have admitted publicly. Grant breaks down exactly why California's count takes as long as it does, why a Republican surge followed by a Democratic catch-up is just math and not a conspiracy, and why you should treat everything you're about to hear about the 2026 midterms through this same lens. Trump did this in 2020. It worked. He's doing it again.

Then there's the president's health. At his NBC Meet the Press interview in Wisconsin, Trump struggled to stand up from his chair, wobbled, and reached out to grab journalist Kristen Welker to steady himself. At the NBA Finals in New York the same night, he was booed loudly at Madison Square Garden, told reporters the crowd reaction was "mostly cheers" of enthusiasm, and then appeared to nod off during the game, in an arena regularly hitting 90 decibels. In the stills, Grant reports, the drooping on the right side of Trump's face was visible again.

And then, as Grant was recording, Iran shot down an American helicopter. The pilots were rescued. Trump vowed retaliation. The ceasefire, whatever it was, appears to be over again.

0:00 Trump's 2026 midterm election denial playbook has already started — here's what to watch for

1:05 The LA mayor's race: Spencer Pratt, Karen Bass, and why Republicans lost the runoff

2:30 Elon Musk, Trump, and the "fraud" claim that a Trump-appointed US attorney debunked in 12 hours

4:02 Why mail-in ballots cause a "surge" — and why it's just math, not fraud

5:10 The "pig in a python" problem: why California's count takes six days

6:20 Trump storms out of the NBC Meet the Press interview — the full exchange with Kristen Welker

8:38 Mike Johnson: "It can't be proven, but everybody knows" — why this argument is designed to be unfalsifiable

10:38 Why election denial works politically even when no one believes it

11:40 Sponsor: Cozy Earth

13:30 Breaking news: Iran shoots down an American helicopter, Trump vows retaliation

14:36 Trump's health at the NBC interview: struggling to stand, reaching out to Welker to steady himself

15:50 Standing rallies, seated press conferences, and a pattern Grant has been tracking for months

17:00 Trump gets booed at the NBA Finals — then says the crowd was "mostly cheers" of enthusiasm

17:51 Trump appears to nod off at Madison Square Garden — and the face drooping is back

19:00 Why Grant keeps reporting on Trump's health even when the White House ignores it

Things You Forgot From Civics Class

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Zach Everson is the research director at Public Citizen and the head of their Trump Accountability Project. He is a former Forbes reporter who has spent a decade tracking how Donald Trump uses the presidency to make money. This term, he says, the scale is incomparable to the first.

Forbes estimates Trump has made roughly $1.9 billion from crypto since being reelected. That includes the meme coin, the USD1 stable coin backed by a UAE-linked investment firm, and World Liberty Financial, which sold 49% of itself to the UAE's national security advisor days before Trump was inaugurated.

Zach breaks down exactly how each product works, why the money flows to Trump even when the coins are essentially worthless, and why a $2 billion investment from a foreign government's financial arm into a product Trump controls is the most serious emoluments case no one is talking about.

They also get into why this corruption isn't breaking through with the public the way it should, what it would actually take to stop a future president from doing the same thing, and why Zach says Trump has opened a Pandora's box that neither party has closed.

CHAPTERS:

0:00 Trump is using the presidency to make money in broad daylight. This is how.

1:53 Meet Zach Everson: 10 years tracking Trump's business interests at Forbes and Public Citizen

2:47 Why Zach left Mar-a-Lago visitor tracking behind and went all-in on crypto

4:15 The difference between Trump's first and second term: from $100K ballroom rentals to billions

6:38 How Trump went from "crypto is thin air" to making $1.9 billion from it

7:10 The NFTs, World Liberty Financial, the meme coin, and the USD1 stable coin explained

10:00 How the meme coin makes money even when it's worthless

11:30 The UAE invested $2 billion into Trump's stable coin. Here's what they got in return.

13:30 Forbes pegs Trump's crypto earnings at $1.9 billion since reelection

15:00 Why crypto is the perfect influence-peddling vehicle: public blockchain, hidden identities

16:00 85% of Trump's stable coin is held overseas. What that actually means.

17:05 The emoluments clause, the UAE's national security advisor, and the case no one is bringing

18:11 Sponsor: Cozy Earth

19:47 How Trump's for-profit presidency escalated from a soap bar to billions in crypto

22:15 Why the public stopped caring about Trump's corruption and what it would take to change that

23:05 Don Jr. up sevenfold, Eric Trump worth $400 million: the children's cut

25:34 Why the slush fund broke through when the crypto billions didn't

27:04 How do we stop the next president from doing this? What guardrails could actually work?

29:57 Wrap-up and where to find Zach's work

LINKS:

MAKE IT MAKE SENSE SUBSTACK

PUBLIC CITIZEN

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Trump went seven full days without a public appearance. When he resurfaced, it was first in a pre-taped podcast interview with a friendly outlet where he didn't look well, and then in an unscheduled Oval Office press conference where he struggled to follow questions, compared a flat reflecting pool to skyscrapers, and told Kaitlin Collins to smile more.

That press conference also produced the clearest sign yet that the Iran conflict is not a ceasefire in any meaningful sense of the word. The US has now fired on six civilian merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump couldn't say the word "ceasefire" when asked directly.

Congress noticed. The House passed a war powers resolution to end the Iran conflict last night, with four Republicans crossing party lines. The Senate already passed its own version two weeks ago. What happens if Trump ignores both, and what it means for the midterms, is what Grant breaks down today.

Also: Todd Blanche gets rewarded for protecting Trump's immunity deal with a nomination for Attorney General, the $1.8 billion slush fund is dead on paper but not really, and Sen. Lindsey Graham is already working on a replacement.

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Two federal judges have now stepped in to freeze Trump's $1.8 billion anti-weaponization slush fund. One judge in Virginia halted all payouts. A judge in Miami reopened the entire IRS lawsuit after 35 former federal judges called the settlement a fraud on the court. The DOJ quietly backed down Monday and said it would comply.

That means the Trump loyalists who were promised a payout for their loyalty are not getting one, at least for now. And the Republicans in the Senate are furious.

Grant also breaks down the Bill Pulte appointment as acting DNI, why legal experts say it may be illegal, what the Iran ceasefire collapse actually means for oil prices this summer, and Trump's "I don't care" tell that one of his own biographers says is code for something specific.

CHAPTERS

0:00 Everything that went wrong for Trump this week

1:52 Bill Pulte named acting DNI: who he is and why the appointment may be illegal

4:08 How Pulte used housing agencies to go after Trump's political enemies

6:00 Iran ceasefire collapse: what actually happened over the weekend

8:13 What Trump's "I don't care" actually means, according to his biographer Michael Wolff

8:40 Oil at $150 a barrel? Gas could hit $6 by Fourth of July

11:00

Sponsor: Cozy Earth

12:37 The $1.8 billion slush fund explained: how a lawsuit against himself became an immunity deal

15:00 Two judges freeze the slush fund: Virginia halts payouts, Miami reopens the IRS case

17:09 The DOJ backs down, Trump loyalists get nothing, and Senate Republicans revolt

19:00 The "wounded bear caucus": why a furious GOP Senate is Trump's biggest problem right now

THINGS YOU FORGOT FROM CIVICS CLASS

PROMO CODE
This episode is sponsored by Cozy Earth. Summer nights and a chaotic news cycle are a rough combo — at least your sheets shouldn't make it worse. Cozy Earth's bamboo sheets and brushed bamboo pajamas are temperature-regulating, insanely soft, and built for actually sleeping cool. Use code MIMS25 at CozyEarth.com for 30% off — and when you do, you're also supporting the show.

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